Phil Streible with Blue Line Futures discusses Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, and other commodity topics.
Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist
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“Good morning, it’s Wednesday, January 24th, about 6 a.m. Central Time. Overnight, the pressure bals are higher after yesterday’s mix session. You have February gold up $7 at 2033, March silver up 40 cents 2285, March copper up 8 at 387, and April Platinum up 13 at 919. So big moves higher in the overnight session here.
So looking at a couple of things, one yesterday I saw a massive inflow on the silver ETF, it was really big. And the thing is, is that if you look at the way people been positioning in the ETFs, they’ve really been attacking like the gold ETF, the Platinum ETF, the copper ETF, and silver has just been left in the doldrum. So that was a big positive inflow, and I think that it kind of marks, and I’m not a proctologist, so I don’t pick bottoms, but I do believe that there could have been a potential bottom there on the charts.
Now I was looking at some things, obviously precious medals regaining some up some upside momentum recently. We’ve been caed by the strong dollar, the uh positive yields, the dollar Index down 45 basis points here today, short-term treasuries, the two-year note down two basis points. So those act as small Tailwinds on that gold and silver market here this morning.
Copper, I think, was really the one that made the move, and that’s the one that I was watching. And I was talking with my partner yesterday, Bill Baroo, you guys all know him, and I said, man, if there’s one chart that you can print out, frame, slap on the wall, it’s going to be that copper chart. So you look at um the the things that I keep on my charts here, stochastics rising from oversold territory, DMI plus crossing over minus on the daily chart, and then it had that Nike swish signal. And I was like, you look at the chart pattern, it looks like that Nike swish, that’s usually the best setup in my opinion. I don’t care what commodity it is, uh, that’s something that I look for. So again, best chart out there was the copper market.
So it’s got the tightest inventory since 2021, mining Supply had really struggled, rates going down. So if we don’t get the interest rate cut in March and we end up getting it May and June, it’s going to act as a Tailwind. Historically, copper has rallied in the double digits percentage wise within the first three months of that first interest rate cut. So China had provided stimulus of $278 billion, and then also if you look at in the overnight session, China had the People’s Bank of China, it says that they’re providing 139 billion in long-term liquidity by the way of cutting reserve, the reserve ratio by 50 basis points on February 5th. So they did this before, they I’d seen them where they cut make massive cuts on their um Reserve ratio requirements. And what happens is those people, they take the money out, out and they park it in a different asset classes. So they might be going after you know the undervalued silver, gold, and then also something else is, I was thinking maybe it was a rotation out of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies with that big sell-off. But the reality is, is that I think the selloff in Bitcoin is more reshuffling. If you have that money held at Coinbase or Robin Hood, any of these different crypto housing companies that can expose themselves to hackings and things like that, plus you’re probably overweighted because you’re buying whole Bitcoins and chunks of Bitcoins and things like that, and you can’t really balance it correctly with your portfolio. What I think a lot of people did was they sold those crypto assets, the Bitcoins that are held at those houses, that’s why if you look at those stocks, they’re declining dramatically. And what they’re doing is they’re properly positioning themselves under proper traditional allocations within their wealth management accounts. So they’re going into the half percent, one and a half percent, whatever they see comfortable as far as a proper allocation in there, rather than I think people just trying to like dollar cost average Bitcoin, and it’s all over the place and things like that.
So that’s my kind of rant on Bitcoin. Love the way that the metals are working right now, love the way the dollar Index selling off. US equities historically, 75% of the time, we’ve rallied during an election year from 19 uh 28 to 2020. We’ve seen the average return about 7 half percent, the median return about 10.4 percent. So typically it consolidates and then breaks out uh from about March on, that’s what a seasonal pattern looks like.
So you guys got any questions? I wrote an article on KCKO yesterday, and man, I couldn’t hit it better, silver now is the time to act. So uh, I had some prospects, couple customers, things like that, asking about silver. And I really, I drew some trend lines, I looked at the gold silver ratio 91. I mean, it’s not to say that it doesn’t go higher, but I think man, you’re getting right down there, be you know, you’re getting down to the bottom here, um, on this channel in my opinion.
So you got any questions, give me a call, love to talk to you, 312 858 7303. Remember, Futures option trading falls risk of loss, may not be suitable to all investors. Good luck, good trading.”
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