Livestock markets were mixed last week with cattle higher and lean hogs under pressure. What will this week bring?
Live Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
April live cattle continued to climb higher last week, closing at their highest prices since Friday, November 3rd. This happens to coincide with the gap lower from the following Monday (November 6th). The RSI finished last week at 70.81, anything above 70 is what most technicians refer to as overbought territory.
Friday’s daily livestock summary showed the 5-area average price for live steers at 178.85, firm from previous reports. Weekly slaughter was reported at 618k head.
Resistance: 187.30-187.55***
Pivot: 184.65-185.00
Support: 182.60-183.45**, 180.50-181.45***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net buyers of nearly 10k contracts in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, marking the third straight week of buying which has expanded their net long position to 36,088 contracts. Historically this would be viewed as a neutral position.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (March – H)
March feeder cattle futures were higher last week but seemed to run out of steam in the back half of the week as the market struggled to get out above our resistance pocket from 248.25-249.025. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it could open the door for a retest of the October 19th breakdown point which comes in near 253. Despite the relatively sideways trade in the last three days of the week, the RSI remains in overbought territory, closing out last week at 72.28.
Resistance: 248.25-249.025***, 253.10**
Pivot: 242.12-242.35
Support: 237.57-238.92***, 234.52-235.75****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net buyers of feeder cattle for the sixth consecutive week, which has taken them from net short to net long 5,641 futures/options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (April- J)
April lean hogs finished Friday’s trade in positive territory, but the Bulls were likely disappointed as prices settled about 1.25 off the intraday high. Support remains intact from 79.425-80.00. A break and close below that pocket could extend the selling pressure towards 77.25.
Resistance: 83.60-84.00***, 85.50-86.05****
Pivot: 82.67-82.80
Support: 79.425-80.00***, 77.25**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds expanded their net long position to 31,647 futures/options contracts, back near levels from the Fall.
