Funds continue to grow their net short position in corn and soybeans, inching closer to record levels. Is there any reason for a short covering rally?
And if when we’re looking ahead to the spring and the prices with where they’re at right now, we’re looking at the options market as a good way to get some exposure and manage some risk. The seawall, which is a measure of volatility for the corn market, is Sub20, which is at the lower end of the year’s range. And typically we can kind of bottom out this time of year in terms of volatility and see that rise into the spring.
So when volatility is low, options are relative affordable. So I think that’s something to keep a very close eye on. If you’re a producer or a speculator in these grain markets going into the spring. Yeah, that volatility is great to watch, especially when it’s low. They definitely like to come in. Anyway, we’re going to take a break to pay for some bills here and then we’re going to be back with Oliver Slope and talk about the livestock market.
LIVESTOCK
We’re here with Oliver Sloup from Blue Line Futures. Oliver, what are you. Anything in the livestock market? Well, kind of a little bit of a mixed bag here to start the week. I think it’s nice and probably welcome to see the live cattle market. Just trying to catch his breath and consolidate after the nice strong rally that we’ve had over the last several weeks.
Looking at the cash market, that’s going to continue to be a big driver at the end of last week and at the very average came in at about one 7885, which is firm with what we’ve seen in recent reports. Weekly slaughter is at 618,000 head, a pretty good demand that’s helped prop up futures prices. But we are again and towards that overbought territory with the RSI above 70 and typically anything over 70 technicians refer that as overbought.
So we’re stalling out here a little bit. I wouldn’t be surprised. See a little bit of a pullback here as well, or just retrace the break down points from November. So I think sideways trade and consolidation is probably healthy. Later in the week there’s going to be some data, economic data that could have implications on things. We’ve got CPI tomorrow, retail sales on Thursday, and on Friday.
And those things will be tied to the bond market and the U.S. dollar. And that could have implications on commodity markets going forward. So the livestock market, you think it still has some legs to it? We can go to the upside. I think over the long run, I think that cattle can continue higher. The funds certainly have the powder to add.
We know the herd size is relatively small, but I think we’ve come pretty far, pretty fast. And I think sort of consolidation and sideways trade would probably be healthy for the market at this point in time. Okay, That’s good stuff. Oliver and I love your seed bag in the back. That’s a great backdrop and care very nice. All right.
We’ll be back in another half hour. An update on prices. And now I’m going to throw it over to Tammy. All right, Tom. Yeah, Good to have you part of the team here and keeping us updated. People may not know that you actually spent quite a bit of time on the Chicago Board of Trade. Do this very thing.
Yeah, one of those crazy guys screaming and yelling on the floor for 30 years. What an experience. All right. All right. Thank you. Well, this next AG