Cattle Futures Stall at Resistance

Livestock Round Up Research Posts

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Live Cattle Futures Hold Support Amid Market Watchfulness: A Comprehensive Commodity Update

Live Cattle

Technicals (April- J)

April live cattle futures pulled back to trendline support yesterday and were able to defend it, which keeps the Bull’s in the driver’s seat for the time being.  However, a break and close below could spark a drop back into support from 182.60-183.45.  Outside markets will continue to be monitored closely after yesterday’s CPI print that came in hotter than expected, which raised concerns over the prospect of higher for longer rates. 

Yesterday’s daily livestock summary showed weaker cutout values in the afternoon with choice cuts down 1.81 to 292.27 and select cuts down 1.72 to 285.30.  Daily slaughter was estimated at 125,000.

Resistance:  187.30-187.55***

Pivot: 184.65-185.00 

Support: 182.60-183.45**, 180.50-181.45***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Funds were net buyers of nearly 10k contracts in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, marking the third straight week of buying which has expanded their net long position to 36,088 contracts.  Historically this would be viewed as a neutral position. 

Feeder Cattle

Technicals (March – H)

March feeder cattle futures cooled their jets for a minute yesterday, finishing the day slightly lower.  Resistance remains intact from 248.25-249.025.  If the Bulls can chew through this pocket we could see an extension of the rally take us up towards 253, which was the breakdown point from October. A failure against resistance and a pullback to our pivot pocket from 244.00-245.00 is in the cards. 

Resistance:  248.25-249.025***, 253.10**

Pivot:  244.00-245.00 

Support: 242.12-242.35***, 237.57-238.92***

Seasonal Tendencies 

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Funds were net buyers of feeder cattle for the sixth consecutive week, which has taken them from net short to net long 5,641 futures/options contracts.  

Lean Hogs

Technicals (April- J)

April lean hog futures continue to be choppy to start the week as the market seems to have settled down near the middle of this year’s trading range.  Support remains intact from 79.425-80.00.  Resistance comes in from 82.67-82.80.

Resistance: 83.60-84.00***, 85.50-86.05****

Pivot:  82.67-82.80 

Support: 79.425-80.00***, 77.25**

Seasonal Tendencies 

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds expanded their net long position to 31,647 futures/options contracts, back near levels from the Fall. 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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