corn field during daytime

Fewer Corn Acres This Year?

Grain Express

/ by oliverblueline | Leave a comment

The USDA Outlook forum kicks off today and they’ve already provided some new news to the markets this morning as they show fewer corn acres and an increase in soybean acres.

Corn

Technicals (March)

March corn futures made new lows yesterday which may have led to additional technical selling as the lack of new news keeps the Bear camp in firm control on the fundamental and technical landscapes.  The RSI is at 26.39, the lowest level in about a month, which happened to be the last time we got 15 cent relief rally over the course of a week.  

Bias: Neutral/Bullish 
Resistance: 440-441**, 450-453 1/4****
Pivot: 435-436 1/2  Support: 422 1/4**

ZCH2024_2024-02-15_06-16-08

Fundamental Notes

  • The USDA outlook forum kicks off today, below are some of the headline information points.  This forum doesn’t generally carry a lot of weight, but it certainly puts a line in the sand for the start of the everchanging conversation around this year’s production prospects.
    • Corn Acres: 91 million 
    • Trendline Yield: 181.00
    • Ending Stocks: 2.532
  • Weekly Export sales will be out at 7:30am CT.  Expectations are for 800,000-1,500,000 metric tons.  Last week’s report came in at 1.22 MMT. 

Seasonal Tendencies

(updated on Mondays)

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

2.12.24ZCH24_builder_61591_0_20035

Fund Positioning

(updated on Mondays)

Funds were net sellers of corn for the sixth consecutive week, expanding their net short position to 297,744 futures and options contracts.  This is the largest net short position since the spring of 2019, when they accumulated a net short position to the tune of 322,215 contracts. 

2.12.24 Corn COTDET_000001

Soybeans

Technicals (March)

March soybean futures broke lower yesterday which led to additional technical selling and keeps the door open for a retest of the May/June lows from 1145-1157.  Previous support from 1175-1176 will now act as our pivot pocket in today’s trade.  If the Bulls can get back above this pocket, we could see some relief come into the market. 

Bias: Neutral Resistance:  1198-1205 1/2***, 1221-1223**, 1230-1235***

Pivot: 1175-1176 Support: 1145-1157****

ZSH2024_2024-02-15_06-40-57

Fundamental Notes

  • The USDA outlook forum kicks off today, below are some of the headline information points.  This forum doesn’t generally carry a lot of weight, but it certainly puts a line in the sand for the start of the everchanging conversation around this year’s production prospects.
    • Soybean Acres: 87.5 million 
    • Trendline Yield: 52.00
    • Ending Stocks: 435
  • Weekly Export sales will be out at 7:30am CT.  Expectations are for 300,000-800,000 metric tons.  

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.  

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

2.12.24ZSH24_builder_80981_0_20035

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Funds were net sellers of soybeans for the 12th consecutive week, growing their net short position to 130,300 futures/options contracts.  Broken down that is 174,668 shorts versus 44,368 longs.  This is the largest net short position since 2019 when the amassed a record net short position of 168,835 contracts. 

2.12.24 soybeans COTDET_000029

Wheat

Technicals (March)

March wheat futures traded lower yesterday but closed right on trendline support.  The market is under pressure again in the early morning trade, but it’ll be all about where we close in today’s session.  Our support pocket from 573-578 was tested and held yesterday, that remains intact for today’s trade. 

Bias: Neutral

Resistance:  608 1/2-611**, 618-622**** 

Pivot: 595 3/4-600 

Support:  573-578***, 555-558****

ZWH2024_2024-02-15_06-47-32
  • The USDA outlook forum kicks off today, below are some of the headline information points.  This forum doesn’t generally carry a lot of weight, but it certainly puts a line in the sand for the start of the everchanging conversation around this year’s production prospects.
    • Wheat Acres: 47.0 million 
    • Trendline Yield: 49.50
    • Ending Stocks: 769
  • Weekly Export sales will be out at 7:30am CT.  Expectations are for 300,000-550,000 metric tons.  

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday. 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

2.12.24ZWH24_builder_80729_0_20035

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed little change in the Managed Money net position.  Funds are seen to be net short about 67k futures/options contracts.

2.12.24 wheat COTDET_000023

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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