Grain markets continued to fall under pressure in Thursday’s trade. Will the selling continue ahead of the long weekend?
Corn
Technicals (March)
Corn futures continued to leak lower yesterday, making new contract lows yet again. That brought the RSI down to 22.02, the lowest level since March of last year. That did mark a short-term low, but new lows were eventually made. The markets are closed on Monday and next Friday is March options expiration, which could play a role in price action.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance:435-436 1/2***, 450-453 1/4****
Pivot: 422-425
Support: 415-416
Fundamental Notes
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales come in at 1,306,900 MT for 2023/2024 were up 7 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.
- Markets are closed on Monday in observance of Presidents day.
- March options expiration is next Friday. If you’re still in March futures, you’ll want to consider rolling or exciting before the end of next week’s trade
Seasonal Tendencies
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Fund Positioning
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of corn for the sixth consecutive week, expanding their net short position to 297,744 futures and options contracts. This is the largest net short position since the spring of 2019, when they accumulated a net short position to the tune of 322,215 contracts.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
March soybeans traded down to 1160 1/4 yesterday, just pennies away from our 4-star support pocket from 1145-1157. We continue to believe that this pocket represents a good risk/reward setup to the buyside, on the first test. Whether that be covering shorts or initiating a new long position.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2***, 1221-1223**, 1230-1235***
Pivot: 1175-1176
Support: 1145-1157****
Fundamental Notes
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales come in at 353,800 MT for 2023/2024 were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.
- Markets are closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day.
- March options expiration is next Friday. If you’re still in March futures, you’ll want to consider rolling or exciting before the end of next week’s trade.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of soybeans for the 12th consecutive week, growing their net short position to 130,300 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 174,668 shorts versus 44,368 longs. This is the largest net short position since 2019 when the amassed a record net short position of 168,835 contracts.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
Wheat futures led the way lower yesterday after the market broke below the low end of the wedge, which accelerated the selling pressure. The market is traded into 4-star support from 555-558. We continue to believe that this pocket represents a good risk/reward setup to the buyside, on the first test. Whether that be covering shorts or initiating a new long position. The Bulls want to see a close back above 573-578.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 573-578
Support: 555-558****
Fundamental Notes
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales come in at 349,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 8 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.
- Markets are closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day.
- March options expiration is next Friday. If you’re still in March futures, you’ll want to consider rolling or exciting before the end of next week’s trade.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed little change in the Managed Money net position. Funds are seen to be net short about 67k futures/options contracts.
