Grain markets had a strong start to the week but have so far failed to find any follow-through momentum as traders’ position ahead of March options expiration on Friday.
Corn
Technicals (March)
March corn futures were able to rally in yesterday’s trade but fell flat 1/2 cent away from our pivot pocket. Even with yesterday’s firm price action, the Bulls still have their work cut out for them, depicted by the chart below. If the Bulls can chew through 422-425 that could spark a bigger relief rally into March options expiration on Friday.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 435-436 1/2, 450-453 1/4*
Pivot: 422-425
Support: 415-416
Fundamental Notes
- The first flash sale since February 8th was reported yesterday morning. Private exporters reported 155,000 metric tons of corn for delivery sold to Japan during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 918,610 MT, inline with expectations and up from last week’s 892,335 metric tons.
Seasonal Tendencies
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Fund Positioning
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of corn for the seventh consecutive week, expanding their net short position to a whopping 314,341 futures and options contracts. This is inching closer and closer to the record short position of 322,215 contracts, set in April of 2019.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
March soybeans had a choppy day yesterday but were able to finish in positive territory. However, that momentum has failed to carry over into the overnight and early morning trade as futures prices flounder around our pivot pocket from 1175-1176. The Bulls want to see consecutive closes above this pocket to spur additional relief to the market. Keep in mind that Friday is March options expiration, which could play a role in price action.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2, 1221-1223**, 1230-1235
Pivot: 1175-1176
Support: 1145-1157****
Fundamental Notes
- Yesterday’s flash sale was the first since February 8th. Private exporters reported 228,000 metric tons of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 1,185,885 MT, inline with expectations but down from last week’s 1,342,086 metric tons.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers yet again, extending the streak to 13 consecutive weeks, a new record. They are now net short 134,500 futures and options contracts, the fifth largest net short on record.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
March Chicago wheat futures had an impressive day yesterday but as with corn and soybeans, has failed to materialize into carryover strength to start today’s trade. Previous support is the first hurdle the Bulls want to overcome, that comes in from 573-578. A close above here could spark a move back towards the technically and psychologically significant $6.00 level.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 595 3/4-600*, 608 1/2-611
Pivot: 573-578
Support: 555-558****
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 380,774 MT, inline with expectations but down from last week’s 407,524 metric tons.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Managed Money continue to seem fairly comfortable with their position in wheat as there is yet again little change from the previous week. Funds are net short about 56k contracts, which as you can see from the chart below is fairly steady with where they’ve been for the better part of the last two months.
