Cattle futures were choppy in yesterday’s trade as market participants position ahead of tomorrow’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.
Live Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
April live cattle futures broke continued to trade higher yesterday, inching their way closer to our next resistance level and the gap from October 23rd, that comes in from 189.10-190.275. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the market catch its breath here in the short term. Keep in mind that we do have a Cattle on Feed report out tomorrow after the close, we could see positioning ahead of that have an impact on prices.
Estimates for the report
On feed: 100.1%
Placements: 87.3%
Marketings: 99.8%
Resistance: 187.30-188.05, 189.10-190.275
Pivot: 184.65-185.00
Support: 182.60-183.45, 180.50-181.45*
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net buyers for the fourth consecutive week, extending their net long position to 42,472 futures and options contracts. This is still well below what we saw in the Fall, but this would historically be a pretty neutral position.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (March – H)
March feeder cattle futures rallied into first resistance near 253 which represents the breakdown point from October 19th. We see this coupled with an RSI in overbought territory as a fairly decent reason to look at protecting downside risk.
Resistance: 253.10-253.45**, 258.00-258.675**
Pivot: 248.25-249.025
Support: 242.12-242.35***, 237.57-238.92***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds expanded their net long position in feeder cattle to 7,346 futures and options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (April- J)
April lean hogs continue to linger near the upper end of the range which is actually pretty impressive, considering it isn’t uncommon to see a whiplash trade following a nice move higher. With that said, that’s still a possibility. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a retest of trendline support which comes in near 82.67-82.80.
Resistance: 85.50-86.05****, 87.50**
Pivot: 83.60-84.00
Support: 82.67-82.80***, 79.425-80.00***, 77.25**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds expanded their net long position to 31,647 futures/options contracts, back near levels from the Fall.
