Grain markets started this week of trade under pressure as the lack of new news keeps the Bears in the driver’s seat.
Scott Shellady
Time. All right, let’s bring in our guest analyst. He’s on his way down to commodity classic. So this is almost like a roving reporter. That’s gonna be all over slope. He’s with blue line futures. And he is somewhere between Chicago and Houston. Thanks for being on Oliver.
Oliver Sloup
Yeah, thanks for having me. We just crossed over into Arkansas and we got a jumpstart on the day at about 230 this morning. But looking forward to getting down to Texas and meeting people face to face and hopefully see some smiles because we haven’t heard anyone talking about guys on the phone with regards to these great markets. And you mentioned that kind of right off the bat trying to look for that silver lining in it, there just isn’t really one out there. Unfortunately, it’s it’s a bear market. But that doesn’t mean you know, we’re not going to see some relief rallies from time to time, hopefully that sooner rather than later. And funds have accelerated their selling over the last several weeks extending their net short position to a record and corn and kind of on the verge of soybeans, soybeans, specifically net selling for 14 straight weeks, which is smashing the old record of 10 straight weeks. So hopefully, we can get some good news, or at least a premium built into the market with uncertainty around spring weather and spring planting here in the United States. But, you know, looking past that, I think it’s gonna be tough for this market to rally, especially heading into election with with the way things are sitting right now.
Scott Shellady
You know, it’s just one of those things, where I mean, if this feels like folks are stuck, right, I mean, I went and spoke in Virginia, two weeks ago, I’m going to be out in Holstein, Iowa in the middle of March. And, you know, if you’re used to getting seven, eight bucks for your corn, and you haven’t really done a lot for 2023, because it was falling when you were doing it. And then if you haven’t done much for 2024, you’re just kind of in this purgatory that makes you want to bail here, or do you want to wait and see if the funds cover? I mean, it’s a tough, tough spot for producers to be in right now. You know what I mean?
Oliver Sloup
It is a very tough spot for producers, especially those who haven’t taken action. I think over the last four years, we’ve been pretty blessed that to have pretty, pretty decent prices and haven’t seen a year where funds flip short. And I was reminded guys, last year, for the most part last year that it used to be pretty cyclical, where funds would go net long net short net long net short, and we got spoiled with with those high prices for several years. And I think some people get, you know, maybe fallen asleep at the wheel, so to speak, and weren’t able to take as much action as they probably should have back in the fall.
Scott Shellady
And the last thing before we go to a commercial break here, I I’m not sure if I had a bunch of customers right now. I would tell them to rely on a fund’s covering their short as a big part of their marketing plan. When you think about that.
Oliver Sloup
Yeah, that is not a good enough reason to be bullish the market when there’s no nothing else out there, except for a big short position. I will remind you that fun short position and corn that was a record back in 2019. position limits were increased in 2021. So they probably still have a little bit of powder to add.
Scott Shellady
All right, stay right there. I know you’re not going anywhere. You’re in Arkansas somewhere. We’re gonna go with