The second revision to Q4 GDP came in slightly below estimates, and stocks are trying to hold support! Treasury yields on the shorter end of the curve are negative, and BTC and ETH continue to push higher.
Transcript
Good afternoon traders. It’s Chris Chavis with blue line futures and it’s your daily, midday market minute, NASDAQ and the s&p tried to hold support ahead of tomorrow’s PCE numbers. But before we get to it, if you’re watching this video, like and subscribe, if you’re on our website, there’s also a link to direct you to YouTube. You can subscribe that way. We’d love for you to follow us. We would love for you to help us build our following. Yeah, so looking at the NASDAQ and the s&p slightly in negative territory here today trying to hold some key support levels. We are off of the lows here today. But the important thing is that tomorrow is really going to have a lot of economic data specifically, the most talked about this week has been PCE. Now this is the Feds preferred inflation. Indicator PCE stands for personal consumption expenditures. When you look at GDP. PCE is one of the components. It’s one of two components inside of GDP that has made up for most of the growth that you have seen in GDP, and why we have seen a stronger US economy and that is consumers personal consumption expenditures, continue to spend and spend. And that has definitely added to a lot of the growth that you’ve seen the economic growth in the US economy. Now. We actually got GDP numbers here this morning as well. The second revision to the q4 numbers came out today. So there are three revisions that come out for GDP. This was the second one for q4, we got a print of 3.2% versus 3.3%. expected. So slightly below estimates, but we’re still you know, looking at numbers that are above trend, as far as growth is concerned. So not really anything that was a large significance this morning at some crude inventories numbers as well. didn’t really see anything sharply outside of the range crude actually went a bit higher before facing some major overhead resistance and kind of turning around. Now the CME FedWatch tool today after some of this data didn’t really change much, you know, as far as probabilities are concerned, still looking at about a 65% chance of a cut in June 85% chance of a cut in July. And like I mentioned, the NASDAQ and the s&p are off of the lows today. So you know initially kind of sold off, you know, at the NYSC open, trading a bit higher. Now we’re going to be facing some major overhead resistance to kind of get us back into unchanged. Looking at the Russell Russell’s actually the underperformer slightly today, but really today’s move, you’re not really seeing a lot of volatility in equity markets. You know, I think the Russell as of this video is only down about three tenths of a percent. So of course, things may change, especially with some fed speak that we’re going to be getting later today definitely important to pay attention to but for the most part, equity markets are pretty quiet, especially ahead of PCE and some of the other data that we will get to later that’s coming out tomorrow. Now outside of equities, Bitcoin and Aetherium continue to trade higher. And Bitcoin as of this video up over 7% hitting new 52 week highs Aetherium also hitting a new 52 week high. This is just further supporting, you know the amount of capital inflows that you’ve seen into those spot ETFs and also just the demand for crypto. Even though financial conditions are relatively restrictive as yields are still higher, and the speculative risk assets continue to go higher and higher indefinitely think that those spot ETFs have added more demand. We showed a chart in one of the midday market minutes a few weeks ago, kind of outlining this this amount of capital inflow that you’ve seen into the spot ETFs OPEC plus also outside of equities OPEC plus yesterday announced that they were going to be considering extending voluntary oil production cuts into the second quarter. And they may even extend them into the end of the year. So you know yesterday when this news came out, oil traded higher, we traded higher again today and then found some overhead resistance we’ll cover level to pay attention to more closely. Tomorrow. What we’re really gonna want to pay attention to again is PCE. We’re also going to get to labor labor market data, jobless claims, initial and continuing claims, personal spending numbers Chicago PMI and pending home sales. So a lot of data that’s going to be covering coming out tomorrow definitely gonna see some volatility and risk assets as a whole precious metals and equity indices. When looking at some of the support and resistance levels like I mentioned NASDAQ in the s&p off of the lows here. So a two star level not as significant two star resistance level for the s&p 5097 and three quarters to 5101 and a half NASDAQ two star resistance as well 1850 to 1871. Looking at crude oil, a four star resistance level now we were two cents away from hitting this level here today and today’s intraday trade that high was, you know, 7964 I believe, or 7962. We were there two or four cents like I can’t remember exactly, but we traded up to this level and should
sold off. So major Forestar some resistance level to keep an eye on to is going to be 7966. If we can break and close above there we’re definitely going to push a bit higher or at least it’s going to add some more conviction for us to test 80 bucks in crude. Now looking at Silver support level three star support 2243 to 2251. If we break and close below here can see a little bit more weakness in silver moving forward. If you have any questions reach out to our trade desk we’re here for you. Remember, futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.