Unlock market secrets with Phil Streible on Schwab network! From Bitcoin’s potential surge to insights on small caps and gold, gain expert perspectives on current market dynamics.
Transcript
Phil Streible back with us Blue Line futures chief Market Strategist Phil welcome back the big move of course one you were looking for was a pop and BTC we got it was so close only a matter of time till a record. So we go back up note so we go to 100,000 Forget 70,000 69,000 I think we’re breaking out to the upside look 93% Of all the Bitcoin supply has already been mined and is circulating. We’ve got a four year cycle coming up of the halving which is another bullish catalyst. Come on having good isn’t that the whole point of buying Bitcoin is not priced in from the moment it’s not more supply it’s more demand. Wait here Forget everything. All I need to do is tell you one thing there is more volume on crypto ETFs being traded right now than spy and QQ that doesn’t tell you that’s where the party is at that’s where you got to be. Well, how come the other coins have kept up equally the market cap dominance and bitcoins unch since the ETFs I mean, it seems like a buying everything. Well, I’ll tell you this, you take the average crypto return over the past six months for the top 200 coins and it’s 154% Pick your poison when it comes to that. So the options there are not available yet on the ETFs wait till we start getting these gamma squeezes and talk about zero d t e you know Bitcoin? Yes, yes, that’s that’s like a wild west times 1000 True. I mean, look, there’s no options on him yet. I was looking for him earlier this week, probably saved me some money that they weren’t available yet. All right, so what’s the timeline for this? To your point, the whole crypto community loves this big halving event. Again, I think that’s like the whole point of bitcoins existence. So, you know, you’ve kind of bite because of it, I’m not sure it’s like buying, you know, Apple and get an iPhone report, like that’s expected, you know, they gotta sell iPhones got to have oh, we’re seeing is that less supplies gonna be put on by the market? Right? You’re gifted these Bitcoins, but it’s half as much as and it keeps getting quartered down like that. But the demand is really picking up, we saw two more financial institutions are allowing access to ETFs. Like, if you were like, you know, going through Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, something like that you tried to go on there by like the Ibet ETF, it’s gonna tell you it’s not available. So there’s a lot of financial institutions that just haven’t allowed trading in a yet. And I think that that’s where you really get more of that retail client becoming involved with that. And also, the financial advisors, The Wealth Advisors, I don’t think they’ve modelled it really into, you know, any of their asset allocation models. So once you get that going, it’s just going to become more broad based on people in the ownership with it. And that’s where prices gradually rise. Now, I’m going to tell you, we did remove some took off some of those futures contracts today, right around 64,000. That match yesterday, we had that big breakdown, where we’re looking at reentering is kind of a bracket strategy. So if it breaks out back above 64,600, we want to be involved with the contracts, use a buy stop above there. And then you look at about 60,000. That’s where your limit order is on the downside. So we’re really playing. If it breaks down, we want to be involved. If it breaks out to the upside. We don’t want to miss the party. Got it? Okay, it makes sense. I mean, usually when Bitcoin makes a new high, it takes off from there. I do. Remember what it was last October, the last record right when it hit 69k. That was kind of interesting, because it just made the high around 65, a few months before it dipped, came back. And then it did make that record and then it fizzled out for like a year. So the last time we had a new high, it didn’t go ballistic. Does that worry at all that maybe this time we just get rejected at a high? I mean, the times a little bit different. I mean, we’ve got a different dynamic in the markets. I mean, you’re seeing like nividia breaking out, you know, $100 move in that you’re seeing, you know, that super micro computer, you got people going to that people are really chasing assets again. And I think it’s a little bit healthier dynamic in the market. I mean, we know we’re gonna have a soft land and we know the economy’s doing good. People are spending money. I think, like I said, I really believe that we’re in a firm footing in the market. If we did get a Fed interest rate cut, that would be a tailwind. It’s not necessarily taking off assets that are going to cause another uproar and inflation. We’re not seeing 85 $90 crude oil, we’re seeing natural gas prices below $2. All your Grain futures are, you know those things are in the dumps right now. So things aren’t really taken off silver is at some, you know, pretty historically low levels again in the 22. So a lot of these input costs and things are not dramatically going up. So I think that this is a healthy run we have on the markets and I think that things like like tech and crypto and stuff they Gotta place in this is just now their Time to shine again. It seemed like Bitcoin was ushering in this turn to a frothier run up of some of the higher risk assets. To me that meant we should be watching the Russell but today again, we fall short at 2100. What’s up with the small caps should we care? Did the rustle though that’s a tough one, because it’s like, it’s still probably like 20% from its all time high. So technically, if you’re gonna go to that, you’re gonna say it’s a bear market. But if you look at the chart pattern, it looks like it’s got this nice saucer shape going to the upside. I am concerned about regional banks, the concern that, you know, the commercial real estate sector, we did see a couple banks were showing some cracks that got swept underneath the rug. You know, the Russell is the one like if you if you’re going to be like long, NASDAQ long this tech stuff, that would be your hedge to put in place is to be short, some of those small caps because if you get the higher rates for a longer period of time, those companies are going to struggle, a lot of their financing is through debt, higher debt causes problems. True. Hey, last one gold meandering after hitting that record, that was like the weakest record ever hitting anything and like touched it from then and then it just stopped. Yeah, it was on a Sunday night too. That’s why I gotta have a future trading account. So timing, pace and depth of the interest rate cuts are key, we did get a breakout to the upside over the 50 day moving average 2052 We got to get up over 2056. That’s your trend reversal point we could break out to the upside. I don’t like the dollar index, it broke out, there’s a downward sell off. And we took back off, we’re at 104 on the dollar. So we saw gold bleed off again here today. So gold, not that great at the moment, you’re gonna need some more work to go. It’s good to have it’s time to shine. Remember that from the first interest rate cut going back to 1990. We’ve done a steady rally is about 6% On average within the first 30 days of that cut. So you’re going to want to be positioned and I think it has a place in a portfolio and above 2000 I believe central banks are holding there, they’re continuing to add to it. All right. Great stuff. Phil. Always fun. Appreciate the chat. Thank you. Thank you, Phil Struble, Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line futures, it’s critical”