Transcript
Scott Shellady: Blue Line futures. He’s in Chicago. Thanks for being on. Oliver. All right, anything jump out the pages there? Yeah.
Oliver Sloup: Well, it’s nice to see all the grains. Working together working to the upside this morning seems like everyone’s got the rally cap on ahead of this week’s USDA report out on Friday. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see this strength continue into that looking at corn, we’re right up against some big levels 429 to 433. This was the top end of the range from last week, as well as a 20 day moving average, which we have yet to close out above. And 2024. If we can get two out above there on a closing basis, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that extend the short covering rally up near 444 45. At that point, I think it’s going to be a big tug of war. And we’ll probably have to wait for more of a fundamental catalysts either give us a breakout or a failure. Now soybeans, on the other hand, looking relatively constructive as well, right up against trendline resistance trading just above it 1160, the 20 day moving average for that market 1172. And we have not closed out above the 20 day since November. So we’re working on breaking through some of these big technical levels. Seasonally, soybeans can stage a little bit of a rally mid March to mid April. But it will be important to see that data from the USDA at the end of the week to see if that’ll be enough of a reason for these funds to cover.
Scott Shellady: I had a guest on the radio show earlier this morning. I said Where would you like to see new crop corn soybeans, make the you know, have the US farmer have a decent chance of making some money? I’d like to get your take on that. But I’ll tell you what he said for us. He said five bucks and 12 bucks when you think about that. I think those are those are pretty big numbers. I think soybeans is probably attainable talking about the seasonal from mid March to mid April. I think the average out of the last 15 years is about 56 cents rally has been positive for 13 out of the last 15 years. Obviously each year is a little bit different. But I think that’s attainable for soybeans, corn, on the other hand, so many people have their eye on that $5 marker, I’m not gonna I’m not so sure that we’re gonna be able to get there probably fall short. I think it’s close enough.
Oliver Sloup: That’s what I said, I know exactly what my thoughts were, as I said, Well, if that’s the case, I’m putting my order in for 90. Because, you know, there’s going to be a lot of I mean, look, there’s so many wild reports about how much corn is left. And you know, in storage on farm storage, I mean, anywhere 50 60% of last year’s crop that I’ve heard I mean, I don’t know how true that is. But there is going to be this quote unquote, record short is going to be met with quote unquote, a lot of Long’s. Right. That’s that’s the other side of the ledger that a lot of times people forget about.
Yeah, absolutely. And I think we do get a little bit of short covering. But as you’d mentioned, the farmers are going to use these rallies, especially the closer we get towards $5. And that new crop not to just be proactive on old crop stuff, but new crop stuff as well hoping they don’t run into the same issue that they did last year.
Scott Shellady: All right, so right there, we’re gonna go away, we’re gonna pay some bills. We’re gonna come back and talk more with Oliver slope. He’s with blue line futures in Chicago. We’ll be right back after this. Blue Line features in Chicago.
Scott Shellady: Well, hairs as you’d mentioned, a nice move on Friday in the cattle markets and just kind of catching our breath here today, I’m still pretty optimistic on the live cattle market, especially that April contract and then June which will be the next month if we can get out above that gap. And for April that comes in when near 190 I think we could really continue to see this snowball go up hill and accumulate some additional momentum we saw funds were net buyers again last week now net long about 50,000 contracts, which is relatively neutral and about half of what they were at their peak last fall. So I think there’s more upside there but we need to see cash continue to firm to really confirm that now feeder cattle on the other side seeing a little bit more weakness in today’s trade. I think the rally in the grain markets is probably going to be a little bit of a headwind there. So I’m optimistic on live cattle a little bit concerned and cautious here on feeders. So I think these are great, great prices to manage some risk if you have long exposure either on paper or physical as long as we find out whether these wildfires have anything to do with these prices.
I think they’re certainly playing a role in that and we’re gonna continue to keep an eye on it. It’s just insane how big that has spread. So thoughts and prayers everyone out there that things work out all right. Okay,
Scott Shellady: thanks Oliver. Great stuff. I’m glad you’re back safe from quantity classic. We’re down here in Nashville and so far so good, but so far, so good. Good Monday. Yeah. All right. Thanks got a West Michigan beef may have just