ADP Nonfarm Came in slightly below estimates while JOLTs showed a slight increase. Powell continues his testimony before congress and maintains that interest rate cuts are appropriate at some point this year. Gold is setting new record highs, Crude attempts a breakout and Stocks rebound!
Transcript
Good afternoon traders. It’s Chris Chavez Blue Line futures and it’s your daily, midday market minute. Gold is setting new all time highs crude oil tries to break out and the Nasdaq 100 stock indices as a whole rebound. But before we get to it if you’re watching this video, like and subscribe if you’re on our website, there’s also a link to directly to YouTube. And you can subscribe that way we would love for you to follow us, we would love for you to help us build our following. Yeah, so looking at the markets here today, we did get some economic data that came out. ADP nonfarm came in slightly below estimates 140,000 jobs versus 149,000 expected, the previous number also got an upward revision 111,000 is now where it stands previous number was 107,000. When looking at jolts job openings, those came in slightly above estimates 8.8 million was expected we got to print of 8.8 6 million. So a little bit of tug and pull, you know, between these two labor market data points, nothing really that shows a significant amount of weakness in the labor market. One thing I want to highlight is that even though ADP non farm came in below estimates, we can still get a much different number when looking at non farm on Friday that will be released. So there’s still a lot more economic data to pay attention to specifically labor market data throughout this week. And this is really going to be one of the bigger labor market data weeks that we’re gonna get Until next month, at the same time, so definitely going to provide some really good insight into the health of the labor market and the economy. Fed Chair Powell is testifying before Congress today. And he did say something of importance, I think there’s been a lot of debate circling around monetary policy and the path of the Fed specifically interest rate cut probabilities and how, you know, some people are calling for the Fed to not cut at all, because we’re seeing so much economic strength, and Fed Chair Powell kind of double down on that today. And he said that, you know, the Fed still feels that it’s likely that interest rate cuts will be appropriate at some point this year. So that does kind of put it in a little bit more vague terms. I mean, the Feds latest summary of economic projections call for 75 basis points. And now he’s kind of saying that interest rate cuts may be likely. So maybe it’s possible that we only see 50 basis points worth of cuts, which kind of goes back to what some of the other FOMC members that have been speaking as a blade have kind of given some signal to, it’s possible that we see a little bit less accommodation from the Fed than 75 basis points. But I do still think that interest rate cuts are on the table. And especially if we get weaker than expected labor market data this week, they can really be back on the table for 75 basis points that the Fed has called for in the latest summary of economic projections and their median estimates. So some interesting moves to see in the markets today. Crude oil really attempting to break out we did get some inventories numbers and you can see a nice candlestick on the 930 candlestick. As soon as that crude oil inventories report was released, crude took another leg higher so inventories came in slightly below estimates Today we’re looking at the Russell 2000. The NASDAQ rebounding today the Russell NASDAQ are really neck and neck for you know outperformance specifically inside of the broad indices. Energy is really what’s leading the way higher crude oil also utilities, you know, continuing to catch a bid sing a little bit of a rotation trade continued to play out. Gold really holding up nicely. The market looks very constructive for gold, continuing to make new highs and test new highs. Really we’re going to want to see a break and close above a significant level that we identified in our research. We’ll get to that later. But we do want to see the market continuing to hold in there. The NASDAQ 100 rebounding, finding some support, definitely encouraging to see here today. Now, tomorrow one thing to pay attention to nonfarm productivity claims initial and continuing jobless claims and unit labor cost. Those three data points are really going to be important for tomorrow’s trade. Now getting into some of these levels, a three star resistance level for the s&p 5135 and a quarter to 5138 and a quarter looking at the NASDAQ three star resistance 18,001 35 to 18,001 40. For crude oil, I want to see us break and close above 8169 to 8180. That is a three star level that we’ve identified in our research. If we can break and close above there, I think we can push up to mid 80s crude you know at $5 at $4. I think that would be likely if we could break and close above there definitely would add a lot more conviction off of the crude inventories numbers that we got today as well as more job openings and not a lot of weakness as far as ADP non farm is concerned, you know, still looking like the economy is holding up very, very well. Also Atlanta Fed GDP now came out with a 2.5% estimate versus 2.1. So, you know, things are still looking very good for the US economy. And I think that demand season special specifically for travel, some of the seasonality in these warmer months can really start to add another leg up for crude as well. And gold, a three star resistance level 2152 and three tenths to 2156 and eight tenths. That is the big level to pay attention to if we can close above there. The next level to pay attention to is really psychological numbers you know, 2175 to 2178 and you know, 21 2200 rather after that, so if you have any questions reach out to our trade desk we’re here for you remember, futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.