Corn and wheat futures are firm in the early morning trade while soybeans struggle to find their footing.
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Check out our Vice President Oliver Sloup on RFD-TV touch on Grain markets have traded on both sides of unchanged as traders gear up for what is historically a more volatile time of year.
Corn
Technicals (May)
Corn futures traded on both sides of unchanged in yesterday’s trade, only to finish near where we started on Sunday night. All in all, the market remains rangebound but is testing trendline support from the February lows, as well as a previously important price pocket just north of the 430 level.
Bias: Bullish
Resistance: 447 1/2-450****
Pivot: 441 3/4-444 1/2
Support: 431 1/2-433 1/4*, 421-422
Fundamental Notes
- Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1,238,897 metric tons (48,773,206 bushels), this was near the top end of expectations.
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net buyers of roughly 40.8k futures/options contracts, 37.5k of that being short covering. That trims their net short position to 255,928 contracts. For those wondering where prices are when Funds were that short on the way down, May corn was at 453 3/4 and Dec was at 477 1/4.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Though we believe we can see prices firm from these levels, we would urge Producers to temper the expectations, given the current balance sheet.
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybeans failed to get out above our resistance pocket from 1198-1205 1/2 for the fifth consecutive session which has the Bears pressing prices back near the lower end of the one-week range which corresponds with our pivot pocket from 1184-1188. A break and close below this pocket could trigger another wave of Fund selling.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2, 1212 3/4-1216
Pivot: 1184-1188
Support: 1161-1167**, 1125-1130
Fundamental Notes
- Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 686,181 metric tons (25,212,828 bushels), this was within the range of expectations.
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds have officially ended their record selling streak which totaled 16 straight weeks! The recent report showed Funds were net buyers of about 17k contracts, 13k of which was short covering. That trims their net short position to 155,137 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 56,290 longs VS 211,427 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Wheat
Technicals (May)
May wheat futures had a nice move higher in yesterday’s trade, but it was more about being able to defend support than the rally itself, which really only got us back to where we were last Wednesday. Resistance from 550-555 remains intact as the pocket the Bulls want to see a close out above to spark a more meaningful relief rally.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 563-570, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 525**
Fundamental Notes
- Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 302,302 metric tons (11,107,693 bushels), this was near the low end of expectations.
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of roughly 13k futures/options contracts, 12k of which was long liquidation. Funds are now net short 78,870 contracts. For reference, they were net short 120k contracts in November.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
