shallow focus photo of yellow corns

Grains Retreat in Early Morning Trade

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Grain markets are under pressure in the early morning trade, will the market be able to find it’s footing into Thursday’s report?

Oliver Sloup joined Scott the Cow Guy on Monday morning to share his thought on the price action leading up to Thursday’s USDA report. 

Corn

Technicals (May)
Consolidation appears to be the name of the game as daily ranges look to narrow ahead of Thursday’s report. With a mostly sideways trade, many of the technical support and resistance levels remain intact from yesterday’s report.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 447 1/2-450****

Pivot: 441 3/4-444 1/2

Support: 431 1/2-435*, 421-422

ZCK2024_2024-03-26_04-58-02

Fundamental Notes

  • The range of intended corn acres comes in from 90.0-93.472 million acres, with the average estimate being near 91.8 million acres.
  • Yesterday’s weekly export sales report came in at 1,227,955 metric tons, within the range of expectations and about 100k MT less than last week.
  • Markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.


Fund Positioning

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net buyers of roughly 13k futures/options contracts, the bulk of that being short covering. That trims their net short position to 242,988 contracts. Broken down that is 171,123 longs VS 414,111 shorts..


3.25.24 CORN COTDET_000048

Seasonal Trends


(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Though we believe we can see prices firm from these levels, we would urge Producers to temper the expectations, given the current balance sheet.

3.25.24 ZCZ24_builder_76065_0_20035

Soybeans

Technicals (May)
May soybeans had an impressive rally yesterday, erasing most of Friday’s losses. The choppy trade feels like it’s shaking the trees to get the week hands out of position ahead of Thursday’s report. $12.00 will the technically and psychologically significant pocket that Bulls will want to keep a close eye on into and after the report. A weekly close above or below here could set the tone as we turn the calendar over into April.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1212 3/4-1216, 1240 1/2, 1250-1252***

Pivot: 1198-1205 1/2

Support: 1175-1181, 1161-1167**

ZSK2024_2024-03-26_05-10-06

Fundamental Notes

  • The average estimate for soybean acres comes in near 86.5 million. The range of estimates come in from 85.35-88.0.
  • Yesterday’s weekly export sales was reported at 768,711 metric tons, within the range of expectations and about 68k MT more than last week.
  • Markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.


Fund Positioning


Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 7k contracts, nearly all of which was short covering. That trims their net short position down to 148,339 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 56,166 longs VS 204,505 shots.

3.25.24 SOYBEANSA COTDET_000026

Seasonal Trends


(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

  • Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
3.25.24 ZSX24_builder_59705_0_20035

Wheat

Technicals (May)
May wheat futures broke out above trendline resistance yesterday morning but struggled to hang on to the bulk of those gains through the session. The market has pulled back some to test the breakout point, 550-555. The Bulls need to defend this pocket through today’s trade to keep the ball in their court and the hopes of a retest of the 50-day moving average alive.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 563-570, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**

Pivot: 550-555

Support: 525**

ZWK2024_2024-03-26_05-21-17

Fundamental Notes

  • The average analyst estimates for wheat acres come in near 47.3 million.
  • Weekly export sales were reported at 315,395 metric tons, within the range of expectations and about 80k MT less than last week.
  • Markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.


Fund Positioning

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed little change in the Funds net positioning, holding a net short of 80,570 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 80,721 longs VS 161,291 shorts.
3.25.24 Wheat COTDET_000026

Seasonal Trends

(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.

3.25.24 ZWN24_builder_90633_0_20035
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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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