Cattle futures were under heavy pressure early last week. Is there more weakness to come?
Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle futures got hit hard in the first half of last week’s trade but were able to find support between the 100-day moving average and the 50% retracement. Near term upside targets for the Bulls come in near 182. As you can see on the chart this was a previously important price point and you also have the 20 and 50 day moving converging hear there. A failure to get out above that pocket could be enough to spark some selling interest.
Resistance: 181.725-182.40, 185.85-186.625
Pivot: 179.825-180.625
Support: 175.70-176.40****
Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3.2k contracts, not a lot, but most of it was from long liquidation. This drops their net long position to 59,164.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
April feeder cattle futures broke lower early last week and spent the last two sessions of the shortened week attempting to find their feet. Previous support near 247.15-248.00 will now be resistance.
Resistance: 252.60 253.85, 256.90** 260.65-260.80
Pivot: 247.15-248.00
Support: 243.80**, 240.50, 238.50
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for May Feeder Cattle (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Historically, this isn’t the best time to get supper bulled up on Feeder Cattle, but time will tell.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds hold a net long position of 8,193 futures/options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (June-M)
June lean hogs saw a choppy trade on Thursday only to finish near unchanged. The market seems to be a little tired up near 103 which will act as resistance to start the week. A continued failure here could spark some selling back near the recent lows 98.625-99.20.
Resistance: 103.00-103.50****
Pivot: 101.15
Support: 98.60-99.20, 97.42-97.80
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds little changed from the previous week, holding a net long position of 64,951 contracts. Looking back at historical holdings, this is on the larger side of things.
