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Grain Markets Attempt to Hold Ground

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Grain markets were under pressure to start the week but are attempting to hold ground in the early morning trade. Will technical support hold?

Corn

Technicals (May)
May corn futures were unable to find follow-through from last Thursday’s big move higher, which fizzled out against resistance from 441 3/4-444 1/2. The market is now back into our pivot pocket from 431 1/2-435. A failure to hold ground here could lead to a full retracement of Thursday’s rally, which originated. in the high 420’s. The December contract looks much more constructive from a technical (and arguably fundamental) view as it is still holding out above the 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450*

Pivot: 431 1/2-435

Support: 421-422***

ZCK2024_2024-04-02_04-37-32

Fundamental Notes

  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 1,431,535 MT (56,357,027 bushels). This was above the top end of estimates.
  • The first crop progress report of the year showed corn planting at 2%.

Fund Positioning

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 9k contracts (through 3/26/24), that puts their net short position at 251,730.
4.1.24 CORN COTDET_000033

Seasonal Trends

(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

  • Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
4.1.24 ZCZ24_builder_97633_0_20035

Soybeans

Technicals (May)
May soybeans closed back below the 20 and 50 day moving averages yesterday, but will managed to defend support from 1175-1181. This will continue to be an important pocket for the Bulls to defend, a failure to do so could trigger selling back into the mid 1160’s. On the resistance side, 1198-1205 1/2 is the hurdle to overcome. Consecutive closes above this pocket could spark another leg higher.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1212 3/4-1216, 1240 1/2, 1250-1252***

Pivot: 1198-1205 1/2

Support: 1175-1181, 1161-1167*

ZSK2024_2024-04-02_05-04-45-1

Fundamental Notes

  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 414,484 MT (15,229,675 bushels). This was below the low end of estimates.


Fund Positioning

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 13.5k contracts, trimming their net short position to 134,780 contracts.
4.1.24 SOYBEANS COTDET_000007

Seasonal Trends

(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

  • Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
4.1.24 ZSX24_builder_18373_0_20035

Wheat

Technicals (May)
May wheat futures were sharply lower early in yesterday’s trade but managed to claw their way back and close near the upper end of the range (though still lower on the day). First resistance remains intact from 563-570. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections were reported at 498,989 MT (18,334,702 bushels). This was above the top end of estimates.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 563-570, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**

Pivot: 550-555

Support: 525**

ZWK2024_2024-04-02_05-13-07-1

Fund Positioning

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of nearly 12k contracts, expanding their net short position to 92,102 contracts, the largest net short since December 5th.
3.25.24 Wheat COTDET_000026

Seasonal Trends


(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

  • Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
4.1.24 ZWN24_builder_96311_0_20035
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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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