Cattle futures were mixed early in yesterday’s trade but took a nosedive lower on more headlines regarding the bird flu.
Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle looked like they were making a move towards our 4-star resistance pocket yesterday, which we outlined as 181.725-182.40, but failed just short of that as more bird flu headlines triggered a heavy wave of selling pressure that took prices to their lowest levels since January. I personally feel like it’s an overreaction, but the market has seemed on edge over the last few weeks as these headlines may be coinciding with money managers who want to exit positions during a seasonally weaker time of year.
Resistance: 177.72-178.45,181.725-182.40*
Pivot: 175.70-176.40
Support: 172.90-173.425, 169.00-170.00
Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3.2k contracts, not a lot, but most of it was from long liquidation. This drops their net long position to 59,164.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
The market looked poised to test resistance just north of 252 but more headline risk hit the market which took feeders to new lows for the move, closing below the 100-day moving average for the first time since January 25th.
Resistance: 247.15-248.00, 252.60 253.85
Pivot: 243.50-244.00
Support: 38.90-240.275****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for May Feeder Cattle (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Historically, this isn’t the best time to get supper bulled up on Feeder Cattle, but time will tell.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds hold a net long position of 8,193 futures/options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (June-M)
Lean hogs surged to a new closing high yesterday which certainly mutes our skepticism. The rest of this week’s trade will be important in determining if the rally has legs from here or if this turns into a triple top.
Resistance: 104.50-105.00*
Pivot: 103.00-103.50
Support: 101.15, 98.60-99.20, 97.42-97.80***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds little changed from the previous week, holding a net long position of 64,951 contracts. Looking back at historical holdings, this is on the larger side of things.
