Grain markets were under heavy pressure to start the week but are attempting to find their footing in the early morning trade. Will it hold?
Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures continued to break lower in yesterday’s trade, erasing all of the gains from last week’s USDA report. In our eyes, this represents a decent risk/reward trade to the upside with good support near 421-422. A break and close below that pocket would negate that bias as it could open the door for additional technical selling pressure towards the February lows. The first hurdle for the Bulls to overcome is the mid 430’s, above that is the upper end of the range near 444. A breakout above that pocket could spark a bigger move to the upside.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450*
Pivot: 431 1/2-435
Support: 421-422***
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 9k contracts (through 3/26/24), that puts their net short position at 251,730.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures rejected our pivot pocket yesterday which may have spurred some technical selling back to the original breakout point from March 8th. The market has so far been able to defend that level which set’s it up for what we think is a good risk/reward play to the upside. A break and close below 1161-1167 would neutralize that bias. The first barrier the Bulls want to get back out above comes in near 1187, which is where the 20 and 50 day moving averages are converging.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2, 1212 3/4-1216
Pivot: 1187
Support: 1175-1181, 1161-1167*
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 13.5k contracts, trimming their net short position to 134,780 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Wheat
Technicals (May)
Wheat futures were lower in yesterday’s trade but are attempting to hold their ground this morning with prices gravitating back towards our pivot pocket from 550-555. We probably sound like a broken record by now, but this is the pocket the Bulls want to see consecutive closes back above to encourage a move back towards 570. A continued failure and break below yesterday’s low could spark pressure down to 525.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 563-570, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 525**
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of nearly 12k contracts, expanding their net short position to 92,102 contracts, the largest net short since December 5th.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
