Grain futures are higher in the early morning trade as some as headline risk looms into the weekend.
In case you missed it.. Markets Catch Their Breath After a Volatile Start to the Week
Grain and livestock markets have been relatively quiet in today’s trade as they look to catch their breath from a volatile start to the month and quarter. What’s next?
Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures are continuing their move back to the 20 and 50 day moving averages this morning which keeps the thesis of a bear-trap intact and a retest of the top end of the range just a stone’s throw away. If the market is able to achieve a close above 441 3/4-444 1/2 we could see it spark a bigger relief rally with the next upside objective coming in near 460 which represents previously important price points and the 100-day moving average. Potentially aiding to some early morning strength is concerns of escalation between Russia/Ukraine, coupled with the fact that we are entering the weekend too.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450*
Pivot: 431 1/2-435
Support: 421-422***
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 9k contracts (through 3/26/24), that puts their net short position at 251,730.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures have spent the last few sessions looking for direction. The market has failed against the 20 and 50 day moving averages in the last two sessions but is threatening them once again this morning. If the Bulls can clear this hurdle, it could open the door for an extension back to 1198-1205 1/2. A break and close above that pocket could spark more upside momentum. On the support side, 1170-1175 remains intact.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2, 1212 3/4-1216
Pivot: 1187
Support: 1170-1175, 1161-1167*
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 13.5k contracts, trimming their net short position to 134,780 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Wheat
Technicals (May)
May wheat appears to be breaking out above trendline resistance which has propelled prices to the 50-day moving average. With things seemingly heating up in Russia/Ukraine it’s possible we see this premium hold into the weekend. If the Bulls can hold the early morning strength, we could see more upside with the next resistance level coming in just north of 590. This area represents previously important price points and the 100-day moving average.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 568 1/2-570, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 525**
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of nearly 12k contracts, expanding their net short position to 92,102 contracts, the largest net short since December 5th.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
