Transcript:
the winner of the week was commodities in particular gold, which nothing could get in the way of Phil’s Streible with us chief Market Strategist at Blue Line futures. Quite a week for the commodity trade. Phil, always good to have you on a Friday. So what’s the reasoning in your mind? How come everyone’s pouring into gold? Well, now it’s the it’s the supply demand. It’s the price momentum, everyone starts to jump in it. But this gold has been been ratcheting up for quite a while now. Totally. It’s actually left silver in the dust. But it’s really what fueled the fire. I think in the last like 48 hours was the anxiety surrounding the escalation or the possible escalation between Israel and Iran. I mean, that was that was simply what the safe haven trade jumped back on. And you can see the dollar index is up, US equities are up and gold futures are higher and they shouldn’t be that much higher given you know what the jobs number was today. Okay. Yeah, gold hasn’t mind hasn’t minded, higher rates higher dollar. So I mean, so real conviction trade that something’s going on here when you break in those relationships, right? Yeah, central bank buying that’s been central banks are price sensitive. You know, they’ll just buy at any cost. They set an allocation structure buying it right. They want to buy gold right now. Exactly. ETF inflows have come in and the geopolitical buying that’s been basically the surge on the weak Chinese aren’t big Bitcoiners from my understanding, no, Bitcoin has been under a little bit of pressure that’s been left in the dust. So people are rotating out of it. They’ve been chasing gold, silver, you know, the NASDAQ has been under a little bit of pressure. I think oil is going to get, you know, a new flame here because of the fact that one of the highest levels since October, you’ve got a Brent crude breaching through $90. So that’s going to get a lot of coverage here. But I don’t think just because bitcoins down, I don’t think it’s out, I think you got a clear line in the sand about 65,000 On the downside, and it wouldn’t take much at all. For that thing to get going. I still have price target end of the year, I think we could easily achieve 100,000 And Vidya stopped rally in like second week of March, Bitcoin basically stopped rallying the same week. Is it though a reminder that it’s a momentum, it’s a risk trade when things slow down? Gold works? Better? 100%? I think so. There is a strong correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ. However, we saw a big disconnect yesterday, because, you know, you look at Bitcoin it was
it was up a few 1000 hours held in and NASDAQ and everything else, you know, really puked out. So, you know, that’s, it is rather it is, you know, I think really, the biggest question that I think that traders need to ask themselves this weekend, is that if you have such a strong jobs data, you have strong consumer spending, you have strong GDP growth, why does the Fed even need to cut rates? And I think that’s where people need to have their, you know, come to themselves type a moment, as far as, you know, how are the position and what kind of ramifications will happen to their portfolio? If the Fed does not raise rates? And will gold continue to hold up? That’s a good question. I like that point from the commodity lens, because we think a little bit too much about the Fed being relevant for stocks, actually, bonds haven’t even bothered stocks this year, up until this week. So the Fed stuff definitely matters for bonds, and maybe it’s starting to matter for stocks. What do you think it means for commodities? Phil? I mean, is there a connection here? Historically, commodities have proven to be the best asset class to own just before the Fed cuts rates because supplies are often strained, and the demand starts to accelerate into that rate cut, and simply put a retail investor, if you don’t want to dig in all the commodities, you can look at something simple like the CRB Index, which is a basket of all the commodities it reached one of the highest level since October in raw materials, that basket as a whole I think has reached a new bullish phase. We are getting close to a year highs and a bunch of those commodity indexes. Can we break through them? Even if the Fed doesn’t cut, if we to your point, have enough data here for them to just go through the summer try and get to the election without cuts? Will that slow down any of the copper, the crude, maybe the gold move 100% It could cause a consolidation in the market. So we’re already seeing people that are dramatically up and you could pick any number of asset classes that people are up already year to date, and we’re just through the first quarter and it looks like things are a little bit dicey here on the equities they feel a little bit Toppy. I think it wouldn’t this year might be one of those years where you sell in may go away wait till after the election historically, you know you get on the s&p 500 sees something like a 12 to 15% You’re having a stellar year you’re already up six to 10% on a lot of different asset classes. Why not check out revisit something like one of
Those money market accounts it’s getting you 5% call timeout. Call it you know, you call it the beach summer here and then come back in the fall like that. Alright, good stuff. Thank you very much, Phil a great conversation. Thanks for having me, man. I appreciate it. Have a great weekend Phil streamable, Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line futures. Hey, one winner.