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How Low Will Cattle Go?

Livestock Round Up

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Cattle futures were under heavy pressure on Friday, will that spill into early morning weakness or will buyers buy the dip?

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Live Cattle

Technicals (June-M)

June live cattle futures continued to bleed lower on Friday, likely on the back of potential headline risk over the weekend. The good news, there wasn’t any new developments over the weekend which may. The other good news is Friday’s 5 area average price was at 187.04. The bad news, the technicals and seasonals still favor the Bear camp. We think there will be a great risk/reward setup to the buy side but not sure we are to that point in price just yet.

Resistance: 175.70-176.40, 177.72-178.45

Pivot: 172.90-173.425

Support: 169.00-170.00***

LEM2024_2024-04-08_07-00-22

Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

4.8.24 LEM24_builder_93411_0_20035

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 6k contracts. This drops their net long position to 53,281.

4.8.24 LEM COTDET_000005

Feeder Cattle


Technicals (April- K)
May feeder cattle made new lows for the move on Friday, settling back below 240.00 for the first time since the middle of January. If the Bulls fail to get back out above that level we could see continued pressure on prices with the next support pocket coming in from near 233.85.

Resistance: 243.50-244.00, 246.4-247.00*

Pivot: 238.90-240.275

Support: 233.50-234.00***

GFK2024_2024-04-08_07-11-11

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for May Feeder Cattle (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Historically, this isn’t the best time to get supper bulled up on Feeder Cattle, but time will tell.

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

4.8.24 GFK24_builder_83993_0_20035

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)
Funds hold a net long position of 9,414 futures/options contracts.

4.8.24 GFK COTDET_000023

Lean Hogs

Technicals (June-M)

June lean hogs accelerated to the upside to wrap up last week’s trade, far exceeding what we thought they’d trade to. The RSI nearing overbought levels that previously matched short-term tops. With that said, it is the hog market, and an overbought RSI is not enough of a catalyst to halt the rally.

Resistance:

Pivot: 105.75-106.00

Support: 103.00-103.50**, 101.15, 98.60-99.20

HEM2024_2024-04-08_07-23-01

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

4.8.24 HEM24_builder_95229_0_20035

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 12k contracts, expanding their net long position to 76,928 contracts. Looking back at historical holdings, this is on the larger side of things.

4.8.24 HEM COTDET_000035
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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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