Grain markets have been in a choppy rangebound trade recently which could setup traders with more shorter-term opportunities.
Oliver Sloup was on RFD-TV Monday morning to share his thoughts on the weakness in grains to start the week.Â
Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures continue to linger in between support and resistance, leaving those levels unchanged from yesterday’s report. This environment is decent for shorter term opportunities, but anything longer than a day as of late has just been a sideways chop fest.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450*
Pivot: 431 1/2-435
Support: 421-422***
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 4k contracts (through 4/9/24), that puts their net short position at 263,554. Broken down that is 158,480 longs VS 422,034 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybeans had a rally on Friday but gave it all back in yesterday’s trade. 1150-1155 has held for three sessions and working on its fourth session today, this pocket will be watched closely by technicians through today’s trade. A break and close below would likely encourage additional selling pressure.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1170-1175, 1198-1205 1/2, 1212 3/4-1216***
Pivot: 1161-1167
Support: 1150, 1128 1/2-1137**
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Wheat
Technicals (May)
May wheat futures testing the waters below trendline support. If the Bulls fail to reclaim ground above here or at the very least defend our pivot pocket from 550-555, we could see a dip back into support from 537-540.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 573 1/2-575, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 537-540*, 525
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
