Bill Baruch joined AgriTalk to discuss the case for rate cuts and the commodity supercycle.
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5062.25, down 30.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,658.50, down 222.25
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower for the fourth session in a row. Most crucially, the S&P tested our rare major four-star support at 5044-5055, this pocket aligns multiple indicators as well as the gap close on February 21st, ahead of NVDA’s earnings release. Given the relentless move down, failed bounce attempts and this critical area of support, it is imperative the bulls show up today.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5078-5082, 5094-5097, 5110*, 5119-5123.25, 5127-5131.75, 5147.25-5153.75, 5162.75-5167.25, 5182-5185.50, 5207.75-5213
Pivot: 5069.50-5075
Support: 5062.25, 5044-5055, 5026-5027.25, 5018, 4983.50-4994.25***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 17,767-17,796, 17,850-17,874*, 17,959-17,988, 18,051-18,072, 18,131-18,167, 18,226-18,254, 18,326-18,343
Pivot: 17,719
Support: 17,604-17,638, 17,463-17,493, 17323-17,372, 17,106
Crude Oil (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 82.15, down 2.68
June WTI Crude Oil futures are now front month and our levels are updated below. A sharp move, in this case the two-day drop, is not uncommon during times of roll and post option expiration as Crude Oil tends to cleanse positioning. With geopolitics front and center as the weekend approaches, major three-star support was tested head on at 80.78-81.06. This aligns with the gap close and gap open after a pennant consolidation from March 20th through March 27th.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 82.70-82.82**, 83.32-83.44, 84.01-84.39
Pivot: 82.01-82.15
Support: 81.45, 80.78-81.11, 80.12, 78.80-79.02*, 78.01-78.43
Gold (June) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2388.4, down 19.4
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 28.40, down 0.024
Gold has traded fairly constructive on the week given Friday’s sharp reversal but the overhead supply resulting from this reversal is apparent at major three-star resistance at 2404.3-2408.5 and 2412.9-2414.8. A close above these levels would theoretically begin neutralizing Friday’s reversal and invite fresh buying. While Silver has not retraced as much as Gold, its path too has been constructive but there is a clear psychological barrier at the $29 mark.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2404.3-2408.5, 2412.9-2414.8, 2425.6, 2337.3-2448.8, 2466.5, 2539.3-2560.1**
Pivot: 2395
Support: 2387-2489.6, 2378.2, 2365.8-2370.7(, 2360.2-2362.6, 2348.1-2351, 2327.1-2343.1
Silver (May)
Resistance: 28.69-23.75, 28.88-28.90, 29.05-29.22, 29.88-30.35
Pivot: 28.56
Support: 23.44, 28.36, 28.14-28.18, 28.03*, 27.93, 27.64-27.76, 27.34-27.51, 26.93-26.97, 26.40-26.48
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 61,130, down 1,790
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 63,350-63,700, 64,660-64,937, 66,555-67,595, 68,172-68,590, 70,410-70,800, 71,795-71,815, 72,110-72,530, 73,410-73,600***
Pivot: 62,535
Support: 61,632-61,680, 59,700-60,830, 57,410-58.250***