combine harvester on soybean field in evening

Grains Attempt to Rally

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Grain markets are firm in the early morning trade, will it last?

Corn

Technicals (May)
May corn futures tested the low end of the range in yesterday’s trade and have so far been able to defend it, with prices working back higher in the overnight and early morning trade. We still like the risk reward trade to the buyside from the low end of the range. A break and close support would neutralize that bias as it could put the Bears back in complete control of the technical landscape.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450*

Pivot: 431 1/2-435

Support: 421-422***

ZCK2024_2024-04-19_06-19-45

Fund Positioning

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 4k contracts (through 4/9/24), that puts their net short position at 263,554. Broken down that is 158,480 longs VS 422,034 shorts.
4.15.24 Corn COT

Seasonal Trends

(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

  • Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
4.15.24 ZCZ24_builder_49688_0_20035

Soybeans

Technicals (May)
May soybean futures broke lower but found support at our 4-star support pocket which we’ve outlined in recent reports as 1128 1/2-1133 1/2. The Bulls need to see this pocket defended, a failure to do so could accelerate the selling pressure. Below this support pocket and prices are back in uncharted territory, the next support level would be the psychologically significant $11.00 level.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 1155-1160, 1170-1175

Pivot: 1150

Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2**, 1100

ZSK2024_2024-04-19_06-25-53

Fund Positioning

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
4.15.24 Soybeans COTDET_000016

Seasonal Trends

(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

  • Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
4.15.24 ZSX24_builder_9367_0_20035

Wheat

Technicals (May)
Wheat futures shot higher overnight but got stonewalled by what was previously trendline support (now resistance). A failure to close out above 550-555 keeps the Bear camp in control with a potential retest of the lows still in play. Further escalation in the Middle East could turn the tide back to Bullish.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 573 1/2-575, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**

Pivot: 550-555

Support: 537-540*, 525

ZWK2024_2024-04-19_06-30-34

Fund Positioning

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts.
4.15.24 wheat COTDET_000007

Seasonal Trends

(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

  • Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
4.15.24 ZWN24_builder_23380_0_20035
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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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