Corn and soybeans are trading near unchanged while wheat futures are adding on to Friday’s gains.
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We’ve shifted our focus to the July futures contracts as the volume starts to increase there and decrease in May futures. May options expiration is this Friday, which means first notice day is next week. If you’re in May futures, you may consider exiting or rolling those positions.
Corn
Technicals (July)
July corn futures have traded on both sides of unchanged as we start a new week of trade. The fact that the Bulls were able to defend support late last week is a silver lining for the Bull camp, but upside expectations are likely tempered as it continues to be a mostly sideways trade over the last month. The sideways trade isn’t a great environment for the perma-bull or perma-bear, but it’s great for shorter term traders, on both sides of the market.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2***, 449 1/2-451****
Pivot: 431 1/2-435
Support: 433 1/4-436****, 422 1/4-424 1/4***
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 16k contracts (through 4/16/24), that puts their net short position at 279,570. Broken down that is 161,576 longs VS 441,146 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. We update this each Monday. If you’d like to look at different contract months, spreads, etc, let us know and we can send those charts to you.
Soybeans
Technicals (July)
July soybean futures looked like they were destined for new lows last Thursday but made an impressive recovery in Friday’s trade which put prices back near trendline resistance. So far, the market has been unable to use Friday’s strength as a source of momentum to start this week’s trade. However, if the Bulls can chew through trendline resistance from 1169 1/4-1173 1/2 we could see that spark a little short covering back into the mid-1180s.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1169 1/4-1173 1/2, 1182 1/4-1186 1/4*
Pivot: 1150-1155
Support: 1140 1/4-1145 3/4****
Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 10.5k contracts, putting their net short position at 167,875 contracts. Broken down that is 45,089 longs VS 212,964 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Updated each Monday. If you’d like to look at different contract months, spreads, etc, let us know and we can send those charts to you.
Wheat
Technicals (July)
July wheat futures had a strong day on Friday and are using that momentum in the early morning trade with prices back near those highs. If the Bulls can confirm the early morning strength through a strong morning session, we could see a move back towards the top end of the range which comes in near 590. Consecutive closes above 590-595 could spur a bigger move to the upside.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 574 3/4-580, 590-595*
Pivot: 565-570
Support: 550-552 1/4, 537 3/4-539 1/2*
Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 7k contracts. That expands their net short position to 96,403 contracts, their largest net short position since the end of November.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
