The monthly Cattle on Feed report was released Friday afternoon and had a bullish tilt to it, will that keep the cattle rally alive to start the week?
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Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle futures were able to defend support over the last two weeks which may have prompted some buying into Friday’s Cattle on Feed report which had a bit of a bullish tilt to it. On Feed came in at 101.5%, that was .5% below the average analyst estimate. Placements were reported at 87.6%, well below the average estimate of 92.8%. Marketings came in at 86.3%, below the average estimate of 89%. If the Bulls can keep the momentum going, we could see an extension towards the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the recent high to low, that comes in at 178.425.
Resistance: 175.70-176.40, 177.72-178.45*
Pivot: 172.90-173.425
Support: 169.00-170.00***
Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 5.5k contracts. This drops their net long position to 32,301 futures and options contracts. Historically, we would look at this as a neutral position.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (May- K)
May feeder cattle futures were able to finish last week’s trade on a high note, which keeps the door open for a run back to the “scene of the crime” from April 1st, where we saw futures trade in a nearly $11 range. That pocket comes in from 244.85-245.425. If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, we could see it aide momentum towards 250.675-251.30.
Resistance: 244.85-245.4250, 250.675-251.30
Pivot: 238.90-240.275
Support: 233.50-234.00, 231.05
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for May Feeder Cattle (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds hold a net long position of 4,445 futures/options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (June-M)
June lean hogs were able to stage a nice recovery on Friday which took prices back near 105.00. We have resistance coming in just above that from 105.45-106.00. A failure to close above this pocket could invite sellers back into the market with a retest of the recent lows as a likely target, near 101.00-101.50.
Resistance: 105.45-106.00*,109.175-109.65
Pivot: 103.00-103.50
Support: 101.00-101.50, 98.60-99.20
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 6k contracts, trimming their net long position to 86,645 contracts. Looking back at historical holdings, we still considered a large net long position.
