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Livestock Round Up

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A whipsaw trade in cattle presents opportunities for traders on both sides of the market.  Are lean hogs posting a double top?

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Live Cattle

Technicals (June-M)

LEM2024_2024-04-26_07-43-39

Coming into this week were in the camp that we could see some consolidation that would provide some great opportunities for traders on both sides of the market, so far that has played out. The market sold off hard yesterday morning on a flurry of news from bird flu and softer export sales to a weaker GDP number. The dip was bought and the market rallied back near our resistance pocket from 178.45-178.80. If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, we could see an extension towards our next level from 179.825-180.75. We had more economic data this morning that was a little hotter than expected, but risk assets initial reaction was risk on, whether or not that holds through the day is still TBD. Yesterday’s 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 181.94.

Resistance: 178.45-178.80*, 179.825-180.75

Pivot: 172.90-173.425

Support: 169.00-170.00***

Lean Hogs

Technicals (June-M)

HEM2024_2024-04-26_07-50-38

In Wednesday’s 2-Minute Drill we talked about the potential for a retracement in hogs back to trendline support and possibly lower as funds look to be overextended on a historical basis. The weakness in the last two sessions also starts to mark what could be a double top, obviously a breakout and close above those highs would negate that thesis. 103.00-103.50 will be the pocket we will be watching closely, a break and close below that could trigger additional long liquidation.

Resistance: 109.175-109.65**

Pivot:  105.45-106.00 

Support: 103.00-103.50***, 101.00-101.50***

Seasonal Tendencies 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

4.22.24 HEM24_builder_3851_0_20035

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 6k contracts, trimming their net long position to 86,645 contracts.  Looking back at historical holdings, we still considered a large net long position. 

4.22.24 HEM COTDET_000015

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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