Corn Futures Test Significant Support, Will it Hold?

Corn futures have been under pressure for the last three sessions after failing against resistance to start the week. Will support hold into the weekend or will the selling persist?

Transcript:

Looks like a 27 range on the July contract. SEP is down three and three quarters and 731 a half and Easttown. Two and a half 746 even. I got my guest Oliver Sloup this morning here this afternoon he is with blue line futures. Oliver, you’re bad and clean up here, sir, tell me what you’re gonna do here at the close? Oh, well, it’s it’s been a wild week. But that’s kind of the norm for this time of year right when we started the week, we were kind of coming in on a high note, you and I talked Monday morning when corn was trading higher 475 Being a very important level, psychologically. And technically, that was basically the the breakdown point from the January 12 was a report and the fact that we weren’t really able to chew through there without any sort of conviction, I think invited. Some of the people who have made been covering shorts over the last couple of months, maybe step back in at a little bit better price. So now we’re seeing the market retreat over the last several sessions coming back into what I’m referring to as a must hold support pocket here into the end of the week or 55 area, give or take a couple of pennies. This was support back in January, the break down point in February and then was resistance for about nine days through the month of March and the eventual breakout point on May 2. So there’s been a lot of interaction between buyers and sellers here at that 455 area of breaking close below there. And you might get some additional technical selling into the weekend. I’m crossing my fingers now that we’ll be able to hold it here. Yeah, and the way I did see the weather as plus all Tim and Jeff both show a lot of rain still coming in to those areas there. But we still have a little bit of time left to even even if we spent another week in the rain, if we can eventually get it dried out seems like we should be able to get just about every acre into the ground.

Yeah, you know, the farmers are pretty good at what they do and getting the crop in the ground eventually. And even when we do get the crop in the ground, you know that we’re not out of the woods, right, we still have the whole growing season left. And that’s, you know, where you see this seasonal volatility will come into play. And that can be visualized by the CME Group C vol index found on C vol.com, where you typically start to see the volatility rise in the May June and then kind of peak out in July. And I think that’s really just kind of what we’re what we’re heading into right now. I think some complacency may be over the last couple of months of, you know, a slow monotonous trade but that this is a time when things come alive. So I’m excited to see the markets moving again. Well, and I can understand that clearly. Because we want every opportunity that we can see out there and with this 20 cent range and we’ve gotten a corn market now and probably close to 4050 cent range and the soybean market, it gives a farmers a whole lot of opportunity to be able to do some stuff here. So stick around we’re gonna talk a little bit a lot livestock with you when you come back. This is Chris with y’all stay with us.

Back in again, all over what you see they’re coming into the close here you want to do on the cattle market. Well, cattle market has had an impressive day, that’s for sure. Certainly exceeded my expectations. Seeing live cattle feeder cattle continue to grind higher. You and I’ve talked about it several times probably just likely to see consolidation, as some of these may be bigger funds stepped to the sidelines. And I’ll there’s been some concerns over avian flu. We haven’t really gotten any new headlines there, which is nice to see. But I think there’s still some lingering concerns from fund managers with regards to the outside markets in the economy, as we’ve seen kind of a trend of softer data here over the last week or week and a half. And that may keep buyers at bay for the time being funds on the commitment of traders report pretty neutral around 30 40,000 contracts net long so I think just kind of sitting on their hands waiting for the dust to settle in that market. the lean hog market that’s been a wild ride today almost a $4 range in that June contract. We’ve been tethered to $98 for the last week, week and a half but it feels like it wants to take a direction just not sure what side it wants to take yet as we fly around on both sides of unchanged today. You know, when we look at that hog market, we haven’t seen the index, it just creeps up a little bit and between yesterday and today I saw today’s up it was a little bit but that seems like a pretty wide basis to have to kind of converge has we’re within less for three weeks now.