Phil Streible joins the Schwab Network to break down all the commodities action.

Transcript:

Blue Line futures and, Phil, good morning to you. I didn’t really get too much into it. I was going to steal the thunder or didn’t want to steal the show here. But let’s begin with what’s been a historic week on wall street talking to all time highs yesterday and the s&p and NASDAQ. I
know it’s been explosive, but I mean, people are out there having the FOMO and it doesn’t matter if it’s the s&p 500 NASDAQ, it’s gold, it’s silver, it’s everything out there, the Russell 2000. So all these markets, it’s like been some hysteria over the last couple of days. I mean, we even saw Bitcoin have a massive rally yesterday in the markets. I mean, like, the messages are just flurry with everybody trying to position these things thinking that the markets gonna break loose and get underway. So I really think though the 730 that jobs number that initial claims, I think that that’s back in the spotlight, remember last week in the week before that it was the the miss in the in the payroll data, that 175,000 print that got a little things going some momentum going and then the initial claims coming in at 231,000. Much higher than anticipated that pulled forward some of those interest rate cut expectations, put two cuts back on the table. Now we’ve got the a little bit softer CPI print. So markets are like I said they’re on fire right now. Come on.
It’s not just markets, Phil, you seem to be pretty fired up yourself over there as well. I love it. I liked the energy here this morning. And you’re definitely bringing it let’s talk a little bit about what’s behind the bid that we’ve seen. Right. Seems like investors are a little bit concerned by the PPI data earlier this week. But then Fed Chair Jerome Powell kind of green lighted this thing. And that CPI numbers you mentioned really fueled the market higher retail sales a little softer than expected. But it seems like investors are pretty comfortable with the idea that the economy is slowing that inflation right now is calling a bit as well.
Definitely showing some cracks in the economy. You know, we’ll continue to monitor the economic data comes out any sign of sofs sign of softening on that data will lead to you know, a more dovish fed, I find it amazing that Jerome Powell has to come out, he gets questioned every time is the next move and interest rate hike. You know, that’s kind of it’s just, it’s just entertaining me here. You know, the reality is that some of the components like Crude Oil Futures haven’t gone anywhere, gasoline futures have been stalling out. So some of those key things. And I think that if we can get the housing, the rent control, you know, Beck Beck, in line with where we are historically have been, you’ll see things start to come down insurance premiums, things like that, that really impact the inflation data. And then that’s how things level off drip lower. And then we get that market that we really want.
Speaking of coming down and kind of in the same thread that we’ve opened up here in terms of what’s behind the bed, you’ve got the dollar, which has come off, you’ve got yields, which have come off. I mean, though, I feel like we’re in one of those environments where you could throw a dart blindfolded and hit something bullish in terms of something that could propel the stocks and the indices higher 110%.
So Dollar Index break below the 50 day moving average, that was a big move yesterday, and the dollar has been in a bull market for quite a while. Yeah, that was the first time that like our proprietary trend discovery programs, were going to more of a neutral stance on the dollar index, the Treasury yields, those were also winding down. But remember, they have been in bull markets sell, it might take a little bit of things like even the dollar index here today, as of this recording is starting to push back up just a touch here. So some people might be some of the bargain hunters might be coming in at the moment. So we’ll keep an eye on a lot of different things. You know, you get this kind of euphoric move to the upside. That’s what you got to really put your thinking cap on and go, Hey, how do I manage my risk here? What does shy trim up position sizing ski?
Well, you sound a little bit skeptical, or at the very least, like you don’t want to get lulled into a false sense of complacency up here, right? You’ve seen this before. We’re not necessarily just going to power on the moon right now. But the question I have for you is even if we don’t get rate cuts this year, right, and not necessarily putting a hike on the table by any means. But if we don’t get cuts this year, the fundamentals being so strong as they are earnings company’s quarterly results, which continue to carry this market in many ways. Can that be the case without the Fed acting, you
get stagflation. So you’ll get rising, you know, commodities across the board. I mean, as far as companies that companies always they find a way to to, you know, maintain their bull markets. They’ll be strong, large cap companies, you know, tech companies, things like that, whatever they’re doing, whether it’s stock buybacks or things or you developing new products out there, they seem to find a way to go up. That’s why we’ve been, you know, maintaining our bullish stance on tech and things like that. And that’s fine. Did the NASDAQ it’s just been relentless to the upside, you know, but I mean, I’ve done this been a futures broker for over 23 years. I’ve seen it all. I’ve been through silver at $50. I’ve seen them pull the rug on all these different commodities and stuff. That’s why I said that you really got to stay focused. You got to have your plan in place, plan your trade, trade your plan and stick to stick to your guns don’t do deviate from it, I think you can come out well on these markets. And as
I think about silver at 50 bucks, Phil, you’re going all the way back to we’re talking when I’m looking at the chart here 2011 Right now, I mean, a spring of 2011. I remember that very well, on the trading floor some interesting stories related to but talk to me, Phil, is there anything you’re concerned about right now? Right. Could we see in the jobless claims, numbers, labor conditions slowing to the extent that it kind of raises some eyebrows or starts to spark some fear? I mean, policy or polish and say Powell said that policy is having an impact on the economy and labor?
Yes, the labor market, I think is key right now you want to see, you know, lack of wage growth at the moment, you want to see higher claims numbers, it’s terrible to say you want to see people lose their jobs. So the bar solo pot rates, things like that, you know, it’s so hypocritical, but you know, we want to see those cracks in the markets and then that’ll pull follow the rate expectations, then who knows, maybe they get the two interest rate cuts, and then the party’s over. And that was a top in on the market. So you know, time will tell on this, we have a full year to digest this, we still got an election coming down the card. So a lot of stuff that’s out there, you know, it’s taken it day by day, and then looking at what are the different things that are getting impacted. We still gotta pay attention to China, we gotta pay attention to the Middle East, geopolitical tensions, things like that. So you know, there’s a lot out there to weigh up.
Yeah, I think it’s important reminder there talk to me a little bit about a product we haven’t really focused too much on this week or the last couple of weeks now they think of it as it’s come off recent all time highs and hasn’t really participated or kind of regained its composure along lines, what we’ve seen as far as stocks off those April lows, and that’s Bitcoin. Phil, where do you stand on crypto right now kind of a lot of enthusiasm associated with the ETF the approval, but it seems like some of that is kind of waned recently. Well,
you know, the ironic thing was, is that when you see things like GameStop, move up, you see a sea take off on there, and they start going after that, you have to think of what the psychology of that type of person that’s chasing that asset class. And then what it becomes is this perpetual snowball, where they start looking at what’s the next squeeze? Is it the silver squeeze? Do they go after Kryptos and they were going after Kryptos and that’s why we saw Bitcoin have a stage a low and then we’re starting to move back up yet crypto up, the Bitcoin was up $4,000 yesterday, and you know, we get a break above like 67,000 72,000, then it’s party on then you’re gonna hear about another Bitcoin rally going up? I don’t think that the theory them, it doesn’t seem like it’s gonna get that approval. I think the contract sides have been off as far as the futures are concerned, I like the micro Bitcoin, every $1,000 move in someone’s account, either up or down is going to be $100 swing either way, because it’s 10% of one Bitcoin. So I think they got the position sizing right on there. And I think that that’s a great way to participate in Bitcoin is using the futures markets.
You know what I would argue and those are words of wisdom right there, folks, I would argue that most of the micro contracts are a great way for newer traders or even experienced traders to participate at a smaller tick per contract on risk, tick per cash value basis. It’s one of the favorite products of mine and in many ways here it’s really helped me out in terms of learning how to trade positioning smaller basically. Hey Phil, appreciate you joining us here and helping us start things off this Thursday morning. A busy Thursday morning with stocks at all time highs that Phil Streible Chief Market Strategist and Blue Line Futures we’re gonna take a quick