Cattle futures prices have largely been consolidating over the last month but appear to be on the verge of a technical breakout ahead of what is viewed as a seasonally friendly time of year.
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Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle futures staged a breakout in Friday’s trade, closing out our 3-star resistance pocket from 179.65-180.75. The market was also able to clear the 200-day moving average, closing above it for the first time since March 25th. Looking at seasonal tendencies, we see the August contract showing signs of strength from the end of May to expiration. There are a lot of moving parts this year (as with any year) so don’t take that seasonal to the bank but be aware it could be a factor that influences positioning from some traders.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a net long position of about 42k futures and options contracts, basically unchanged for the last 6 weeks which has fit to our narrative that Funds could be on the sidelines with looming headline risk. With seasonal strength ahead of us, we could see them dip the toes back in.
Resistance: 182.525, 184.65
Pivot: 179.65-180.75
Support: 178.45-178.80, 175.80-176.20

Feeder Cattle
Technicals (August – Q)
August feeder cattle broke out above trendline resistance and the 50-day moving average on Friday which could open the door for an extension towards 263.325-264.875 which represents multiple previously important price points, including the breakdown point from March 26th. Seasonally we are approaching a time of year where we start to see prices firm, which has historically gone through the first week of July. Whether or not that plays out this year is still in the air.
Resistance: 263.325-264.875****
Pivot: 258.00-258.50
Support: 254.025-255.00, 248.30-250.075, 243.27

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