Phill Streible on Schwab Network Discusses Triple Witching, Market Volatility & Bitcoin Prospects

Join Phillip Streible on the Schwab Network for insights into triple witching, market volatility, and Bitcoin. Explore $5 trillion in expiring options, VIX impact, and NASDAQ trends.

Transcript: Happy Friday, we’ve got less than 20 minutes left until the close we’ve got the triple witching in play today. What are you watching leading up to the close? Really the last 10 minutes of trading. I mean, that’s where all the volatility takes place. That’s where all the volume takes place. This is where the gamblers really come out of the woodwork. They’re snapping up those calls for two cents on the video paying $1 or two like they’re back at the Kentucky Derby for one final score. So the reality is we got $5 trillion worth of option contracts, all expiring at once. I mean, no big deal right there. But the reality is, is that the VIX has really failed to provide any kind of meaningful scare since April and More money’s probably been lost preparing for some kind of correction and the correction itself. I mean, it’s what Peter Lynch once said. So personally, I hope we see a meaningful correction during the next week leading up to July, where the NASDAQ has finished higher the last 15 Straight July’s so 15 out of 15 years, not a recommendation here. But that is a seasonal tendency that we’ve seen in the past doesn’t mean it’s gonna happen in the future. But we’re definitely anxious to see how it plays out.
And then what levels matter the most going into the close? Or is this awesome? All about the options size and video? Oh, well, the video has been trapped between 126 and 127 here for about the past hour and a half. Some of the other those YOLO stacks, the High Flyers here GameStop, AMC, they’ve all been selling off super micro computer kind of hold in steady and the NASDAQ is holding right at about that 20,000 level. So we want to see really any kind of big move in one direction or the other. We’ve been hit we’ve been hanging on here for about the last hour or two. The s&p 500 really hold on to that 5530 On the September contract as well.
Okay, and then you talked about the VIX earlier What level are you paying attention to as we get closer to the finish line? I’m hearing more activity starting to happen right now around me. Yeah, watching the watching the July contract. It’s that 14 handle we haven’t had any kind of meaningful impact or breakout since then. Yesterday, it looked like we were trying to make a move here today a really a big break down. That vial is compressing as we come into the close. So hopefully it releases we see some kind of gamma squeeze back to the upside here with the last 510 minutes.
Okay, so you think that squeeze is going to happen in the last five to 10 minutes. It’s all about the market on close orders 100 110% It’s all about people repositioning reallocating those funds towards those next options. People are looking at their accounts going, you know, hey, these options are going about $5 trillion worth of options here expiring worthless are going all off at once those that money’s got to be redeployed here and unnaturally is going to start to take a look farther out here in the game. I mean, veteran incredible run up and all these equity indices, the one that looks most favorable to the downside, of course, the Russell 2000 Small caps, he just can’t hang out with these interest levels here, and also the rising inflation costs.
Yeah, that makes sense. We’ve been watching that move with small caps all session long. Let’s talk a little bit about another asset that can sometimes be pretty volatile over in the crypto space. Bitcoin has been pretty range bound since hitting that all time high back in mid March. What are you looking for as a potential catalyst for breakout Bitcoin? Yeah, we saw micro sailor he came in with another large position here. So we watch a micro strategy. I mean, Bitcoin futures gotta get back above 72,000. That’s kind of the line in the sand, we break out above that, you’re going to start here on that channel for 75,000. And the reality is, we’re only halfway through the year, we’ve had a great run up in Bitcoin so far, I think that we take out 75,000 That 100,000 Our level by year end becomes a viable price target. We’d like to see a theory I’m also get a bid below that and start to push up back through that 4000 level. I mean, the cryptocurrency that are there, they’re just kind of being shelved at the moment. So people are paying attention towards a lot of other asset class at the moment. You’ve had a lot of m&a activity, as there was talking about, you know, interest rates possibly coming down. The PMI data that came out today wasn’t very helpful. But next week, we’ve got a whole lot of things coming out that week, retail sales could equate to wheat GDP could also bring forward those expectations for that interest rate cut. And finally, next Friday, we’ve got that core PCE data, which is the Fed preferred inflation gauge.
Okay. That was well rounded. You went around the horn. I was gonna say if there’s any final thoughts, but you took us into next week, Phil, great insight, whether we’re talking about the triple witching and the volatility seems to be starting to pick up right now. All the way over to Bitcoin. Phil Streible, Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line futures always great to hear from you, Phil, have a good weekend.