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Looking for a Counter Trend Trade in the Grain Markets?

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Grain markets continue to struggle, is it darkest before the dawn or is there more downside to come? 

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Corn

Technicals (December) December corn futures continued to break lower yesterday, which led to another set of new lows in the overnight trade.  That took prices into our 4-star support pocket from 433-436.  The standard 14-day RSI is at 28.36, the most oversold since February.  We continue to believe the market is due for a relief rally, but it seems like that’s the consensus and they can’t make it that easy, especially with tomorrow being a big USDA report and the end of the quarter.  We’ve been looking at various option strategies for clients looking to play for a counter trend rally into and after this week’s trade is behind us.  One of the more popular ideas has been the December 450/520 call spread.  At the time of writing this, it looks like that is just under 15 cents, with 148 days until expiration.  

Feel free to contact the trade desk for more details or if you need assistance placing the trade. 

Weekly Export Sales Snapshot: Net sales of 542,200 MT for 2023/2024 were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.

  • Bias: Neutral/Bullish
  • Resistance:  453-455****, 460 1/4-463 1/2***
  • Pivot: 444 1/4 
  • Support: 433-436****

Soybeans

Technicals (November) November soybeans made new lows in yesterday’s trade but are attempting to stabilize in the early morning trade with futures trading a couple of cents higher.  Previous support from 1111 1/2-1115 will now be resistance, the Bulls will want to see a close above this pocket to encourage additional relief via short covering. 

Weekly Export Sales Snapshot: Net sales of 282,900 MT for 2023/2024 were down 49 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.

  • Bias: Neutral
  • Resistance: 1138 1/2-1141***, 1148-1154****
  • Pivot:  1111 1/2-1115 
  • Support: 1097-1100**

Wheat

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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