Join Phil Streible from Blue Line Futures on Schwab Network as he breaks down insights on the market, commodities, and more.
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Transcript:
A great day for stocks everybody’s making fresh highs on the back of big tech but different in the category of risk if you go to crypto world where things are getting hit joining us, Phil Struble of blue line futures for his Friday hit sir Great to see you Phil on Friday as always happy fourth and trusting that you had a good day yesterday very American Day.
Oh, yeah, the commodity be long as Aloe because I am so right now. It’s crazy.
Okay, you all I gotta say, on the coast, but hey, it’s pretty hot here in Chicago to can’t complain. It’s pretty cool, though. In the world of crypto, what’s up?
Oh, I know. I mean, since that June 24, sell off and Bitcoin. I mean, that’s what really triggered the shorts. And the bears really came in and it kind of entered into a bear market. We broke below the 50 day moving average. And we also broke below the May 1 low which is about 57,500 ish. Now a lot of this liquidation is something similar to like the FTX. What I’m reading is that mount Gox is finally that that was that crypto hack that happened over 10 years ago, you had about 95,000 bitcoins being returned to people. So can you only imagine that if your crypto wallet was hacked with a bunch of Bitcoin at a couple 100 bucks a Bitcoin and then all of a sudden, 10 years later, it gets returned to you. That’s life changing amount of money, even a couple of coins can make a big difference on someone. So I think that those people are liquidating right now it’s not necessarily the creditor liquidating, like what we saw with FTX. But these are coins that are being returned finally to people.
So you don’t think the people that got hacked and screwed by Bitcoin 10 years ago are full of belief today to hold on to it.
I gotta tell you, I mean, you know, it’s like finding a Mickey Mantle baseball. Yeah. And you liquidated. I mean, it is what it is. So maybe he’s going out with the bathwater, all the Kryptos are going lower at the moment. So I think that this does present an opportunity, especially if like risk assets like the NASDAQ, the dollar index is going to roll over, you know, treasury yields across the board are going to come off a bit could be a good opportunity there for someone with a long term perspective,
well, that’s kind of where it still seems like an interesting move to me, because with all the ETF hype, and, you know, all this narrative that the feds gonna be forced to cut coming up this year, and Trump’s gonna win the election. He’s like super pro Bitcoin, all this stuff. It’s like, well, where’s all the bitcoin is buying up this stuff that’s getting sold out of Mount Gox? people’s hands, right? Like what happened? And people just run out of cash on the sidelines and crypto world? Are they? Are they buying too much Joe Bowden coin or something?
Right, right. I mean, I just think momentum has shifted to other things, you know, we’re seeing this economic breakdown, you know, with Friday’s employment data 206 versus the 191. But if you look at the devil in the details, 70,000 of those were government jobs, only 136. Private, the unemployment rate ticked up highest level since 2021. Prior two months, revised down 111,000 jobs. So you will look at that, that interest rate cut 77% chance in September, you know, swaps are priced into cuts. So you know, it just as big breakdown, as far as like, like the economy and employment and things like that people are going into other asset classes. And that’s where you want to go into things like the NASDAQ and you want to be short things like the Russell, okay.
And it really is a pretty big difference. Depending on where you are in the category of risk guys, that’s right. Crypto has been the worst performer. You’ve got the equal weight, non tech stuff that just kind of like lingering hovering, and you’ve got the RIP edge elsewhere in tech. What about gold? Which is kind of like creeping higher again, I mean, is that more kind of fitting the economic situation that you just described that
week? Yeah, definitely the the labor market deteriorating, that’s kind of that’s been what the thing that the Fed has been pivoting on most. So you get that deterioration in the labor market. All of a sudden you get the dollar index breaking below the 50 day moving average 104 50 I’d say is the line in the sand. It’s really a two day rally in the gold market. It was Wednesday and that also today, remember we had that weaker ADP that uptick in initial claims. So the labor market is what’s brewing in the background gold up 2% on the week, I think for me probably the line in the sand if we took out today’s low like early next next week, so we break back below like 2350 I think you got to be a little bit hesitant maybe go back to the sidelines on the gold market, we break below 2310 I’d say that the party is probably over again, and we’re going to be rolling over but the way the foreign currencies are setting up the way that the to you know all the durations of treasury yields really came off today. I think gold is in a really good spot at the moment and other metals are participating like copper and silver.
Yeah, I love that analysis is copper woke back up again. I don’t know if they’re was a story attached to that. But to your point, I mean, it just kind of seems like that categories heating up.
There’s actually like a story I saw floating out there that was saying that like some of the exchanges, they need to like secure some of the inventories and the boats are delayed deliver, you know, that are delivering these inventories. So I saw something that was really kind of kind of, you know, it’s good Saturday reading is what it is. Yeah, but like, like I said, all these commodities turn it up. I mean, the Copper has this Nike swish type chart. And that’s what I generally look for Stochastics, rising from oversold territory DMI plus crossing over minus you get the Nike swoosh. That way you got an easy place for risk management either buy a put below the low or you put your stop loss and you try and trail it as it comes up. Soybeans have almost a very similar chart pattern to copper. And one thing to note is that like the Australian dollar broke out to the upside. A lot of these things are interconnected with China. China is going to report their ppi and CPI data Tuesday night into Wednesday so it’s going to be something to keep an eye on nice
good stuff love that kind of lost track of the China pulse over the last week here got very domestic focused but definitely an important story especially because Croods been looking pretty good too. So you get copper to join in and then suddenly you’ve got like a full on commodity rally.
supercycle is back commodity supercycle get the shirt. That’s
the next one. We’re gonna get that printed here for the supercycle. Alright, nice. Thanks, Phil. Have a great weekend. You too, sir. Appreciate that Phil Streible with Blue Line futures. And I of course the main commodity though sunblock for the summer. Alright. Okay, coming up to our big picture discussion. Mr. John Mazola joins us to go into the ballot here Russell’s got a long ways to go but everything else is in good shape for all time highs.