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Overnight, Precious Metals are correcting after Friday’s massive up move.
The Catalyst was Friday’s Employment Data
- 206,000 vs 191,000 expected
- “The devil is in the details.”
- 70,000 were Gov’t jobs, while 136,000 Private
- Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4% expected
- Highest since October 2021
- The prior two months were revised down 111,000 jobs
- Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4% expected
- 77% Chance, Fed Cuts in September
- Swaps indicate two cuts (September & December).
It was the Massive breakdown in Yields across all durations while the Dollar index broke the 50 DMA and threatened to break from a bullish trend to a neutral one. 104.50 is the Line in the Sand.
Major Economic Events This Week
- Monday – Consumer Credit
- Tuesday – Chinese PPI /CPI
- Wednesday – Fed Speakers (Including Powell)
- The Fed’s Powell is likely to say policymakers need further confirmation that inflation is slowing before they’re able to cut interest rates when he speaks to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Thursday – CPI / Initial Claims
- Friday – PPI / Consumer Sentiment
- JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup will kick off the US banks earnings season on Friday.
S&P (Close 5621)
- Support 5580, where a retest could support a bounce back up to 5610.
- A break through 5580 could lead to a larger washout down to 5525.
Nasdaq – Strong bull market, historically strong in July
Russell – The preferred short by independent research analysts Resistance 2070-2090, look for a move back down to the 200 DMA 1993
DMI – crossing above DMI +
Gold – Back to a Neutral trend on the Daily Chart
- It will take a close over $2403 in order to shift to a bullish trend
- Support comes in at the 50 DMA at $2361.9
- The line in the sane is $2317, where a break below will dash all hopes of a recovery and send the bulls back to the sidelines
Silver – Triggered a Bullish trend on Friday, but maintains a red flag as a breakout unless we can trade above $31.79.
- In my opinion, it is still advantageous to utilize the options markets to approach the market.
- First major support remains the 50 DMA at 28.84
- the Line in the Sand is $29.15
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