Cattle futures were relatively quiet in the early morning trade then rolled over hard midday, sending prices sharply lower and down to significant support levels. Will they hold?
Live Cattle
Technicals (August-Q) August live cattle futures have struggled to start this week’s trade, trading as much as 7.425 off of Friday’s high to today’s low. Despite cash remaining steady to firm in most places and well above the futures market, futures continue to struggle to hold a bid. This is a bit of a caution flag in our eyes, especially as we look at the deferred contracts closer to the end of the year and into next year. Lingering concern over headline risk regarding bird flu and a slowing economy has likely kept Funds uninterested in participating in a large way like we saw last year. Seeing what has taken place in other agricultural markets over the last two months like grains and lean hogs raises another caution flag. Not that cattle have to or will do the same, but the potential is there, and things can change quickly. We’ve been looking at various strategies all the way out to April of 2025 for some clients looking to establish downside protection. There are many ways to do this, either via futures, options, or a combination. Feel free to reach out to our trade desk to devise a strategy for you and your needs/parameters.

- Resistance: 187.575, 189.00
- Pivot: 184.45-185.55
- Support: 181.85-182.15, 179.65-180.375
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (August – Q) August feeder cattle futures were relatively quiet this morning but then got the rug pulled out from underneath them around 11am CT, with futures dropping from 260 to 254.775 in the matter of just a couple of minutes. That swift move lower has taken prices down to trendline support which has been tested and held multiple times. Whether or not it holds this time around is TBD. We feel there’s been good reason for the market to rally or at least hold ground and the fact that it continues to fail leaves us thinking there could be more downside.

- Resistance: 261.55-261.80, 264.75-265.75
- Pivot: 257.57-258.50
- Support: 253.57-254.35*, 250.80-251.125
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