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E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
- S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5683, up 18.25
- NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,583.75, up 59.75
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures notched a positive session to start the week, but the rebound from last Thursday’s pullback has certainly felt exhausting. Much of the focus has been the rotation to under-loved cyclicals and small caps. In fact, with this morning’s extension, E-mini Russell 2000 futures are up more than 8% since Thursday’s CPI report, which showed pockets of disinflation. However, despite a fresh record high in the E-mini S&P yesterday, overhead supply from last Wednesday’s panic buying and Thursday’s reversal has left a thick pocket of damage (resistance) in which both the S&P and NQ have struggled to repair. Over these last two and three sessions, both indices have created upper-end tails on the daily candlestick, a pattern that exudes near-term exhaustion. During recent pullbacks and consolidations before legging higher, both indices also left tails, but on the bottom-end of the daily candlestick. While this type of activity exudes caution, we also consider the chase for performance, yield, or a catch-up from the worst performing assets (small caps) as something that typically shows up before a healthy pullback within a bull market. If you have been following us, you know our Bias has been unequivocally Bullish, but we will now Neutralize our Bias to watch a round or two of this fight. Although many cite improving market breadth, we see this as one sign for near-term caution.
- Bias: Neutral
- Resistance: 5695.75-5699.25**, 5707.75-5708.25***, 5718.75**, 5762.75****
- Pivot: 5683-5688
- Support: 5673-5676.50**, 5660-5666****, 5649.75*, 5639.75-5642.50***, 5629.25-5631.25**, 5619.25-5621.50***, 5605-5608.25***, 5581-5588***
NQ (September)
- Resistance: 20,661-20,676**, 20,703-20,741***, 20,796-20,822***, 20,900**, 20,983-21,016****
- Pivot: 20,620
- Support: 20,506-20,525***, 20,425-20,442***, 20,335-20,373***, 20,255-20,274****, 20,206-20,216***, 20,000-20,052**, 19,927***, 19,726-19,756****
Crude Oil (August)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 81.91, down 0.30
WTI Crude Oil futures struggled to hold footing Monday after Chinese GDP came in at 4.7% y/y Sunday night, lower than the 5.1% forecast and the lowest since Q1 2023. Although Industrial Production for June did beat at 5.3% versus 4.9%, it slowed from the prior month’s while Retail Sales also missed and Fixed Asset Investment hit a four-month low. The slate of poor economic data played into the “slowing China” narrative and left a difficult path for Crude Oil which has hit the lowest since June 26th this morning. U.S. Retail Sales data came in better than expected this morning, which reinforces the idea of a strong economy domestically, and one that can support prices at the pump. Later today, U.S. weekly inventory data comes into the picture with the private API survey ahead of tomorrow’s official EIA release. Amid such, price action is testing a critical area of rare major four-star support at 79.90-80.18 and one the bulls must defend.
- Bias: Neutral
- Resistance: 81.47-81.70***, 82.21-82.39***
- Pivot: 80.97-81.25
- Support: 79.90-80.18****, 78.80-78.94**, 78.05-78.48***, 77.05-77.58***
Gold (August) / Silver (September)
- Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2428.9, up 8.2
- Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 30.936, down 0.226
In recent days, Gold futures have shown significantly more buoyancy than Silver. In fact, Gold reached a high of 2448.5 this morning, shortly before stronger than expected Retail Sales data batted it back. This is about 1% from Gold’s record high of 2477, whereas Silver has struggled below $32 and more than a dollar (about 3%) from its 33.05 peak on May 21st, not to mention a level nearly 50% from Silver’s record high. The Gold/Silver ratio broke a critical area of support in the first half of May as Silver showed significant strength into $33 and since bottoming on May 29th it has consolidated (because Silver is the denominator, a lower ratio shows Silver outperforming). Over the last three sessions, Gold has diverged, and this brings the ratio near the upper-end of its range over the last two months and will prove to be a critical time for the precious metals. We are currently in a seasonally supportive time for metals and economic data has broadly trended softer, which has been supportive to the narrative Fed cuts and thus a tailwind to metals. In fact, the CME Group FedWatch Tool has shown nearly a 60% probability the Fed cuts three time this year. However, a failure of Silver to participate will certainly make it a difficult environment for metals to perform.
- Bias: Neutral/Bullish
- Resistance: 2445-2449.1***, 2455***, 2461.7***, 2471.3-2477****
- Pivot: 2433
- Support: 2428.9-2430.4***, 2415.7-2419.1***, 2406.1**, 2396.1-2401.5***
Silver (Sept)
- Resistance: 31.23-31.28**, 31.45-31.53***, 31.69-31.80***, 31.98**
- Pivot: 31.00
- Support: 30.62-30.84***, 30.45-30.54***, 30.34**, 30.00-30.17****
Micro Bitcoin (July)
- Yesterday’s close: Settled 63,700, up 5,855
- Bias: Bullish/Neutral
- Resistance: 64,810-65,530***, 67,460-67,710**, 68,643***
- Pivot: 63,695
- Support: 62,615-62,987***, 61,775-62,035**, 60,810-61,187***, 59,880**, 57,500-57,845***