Better than expected weekly export sales along with a flash sale helped beans recover from the early morning lows. Is the good news enough to help spark some short covering into the weekend?
Weekly export sales for soybeans were reported at 360,100 MT (13,231,406 bushels) for 2023/2024 were up 73 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was within the range of expectations. Net sales of 375,000 MT (13,778,887 bushels) for 2024/2025. This was within the range of expectations.
On top of better than expected weekly exports, private exporters announced a flash sale to the tune of 510,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year. There was also a sale of 150,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year. These were the first flash sales since July 10th, which was a sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Looking at the corn market, futures continue to be a stick in the mud trading within a 10-cent range for the better part of the last week and a half, 403 on the downside and 413 on the upside. A break and close above or below these levels could spark new direction (other than sideways). Export sales for corn were not as friendly, coming in at 437,800 MT (17,235,419 bushels) for 2023/2024, this was down 19 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was below the low end of expectations. Net sales of 485,700 MT (19,121,159 bushels) for 2024/2025. This was above the top end of expectations.
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Transcript:
Clean up today, Oliver Sloup Blue Line futures in Chicago Oliver, thanks for being on.
Thanks for having me. No problem anything. I mean, look we’ve been talking about all day if it’s anything jump out to you there anything interesting when we talk about these lives or not livestock these grain prices. But yeah, I’m sure you you’ve covered corn enough to know that it’s just been a stick in the mud here really since July 8 trading in a range 403 to 413. I was hoping that with yesterday’s price action, testing the upper end of that range mid day that we’d be able to find that kind of chew through that maybe spur a little bit of short covering but alas here we are still stuck in that range and kind of testing the lower end of that in this afternoon straight. The bright spot here today is certainly been the soybean market, at least in my eyes November contract trading in positive territory and not by a lot but it was the weak link yesterday, we got some good export debt on the weekly side of things weekly export sales 360,000 metric tons, up 73% from last week and 13% above the four week average. So some silver linings there. We also got a flash sale 510,000 metric tons, which is probably big enough to assume that that’s China. So China’s coming back into the market that could potentially put a little bit of a silver lining here and things to come. I’m just yeah, I’m happy to see that I’m on I’ve been beaten up so bad about these prices that I’m just I’m just hoping we just stopped going down I would take sideways for a little while right? Because sideways is a technical correction after a few weeks. So we’ll see if you’re a bull What do you need to see?
Honestly, a sideways trade could be enough to spark some sort of relief rally I think especially what you’re seeing in the outside markets you’re seeing equity soften up a little bit and potentially that encourages some money flow but a sideways trade you know, maybe funds get a little bored and say hey, listen, there’s other opportunity elsewhere let’s let’s bank what we got here on the short side and look look look to something maybe with a little bit more potential. Yeah, we’re gonna have to try to get those shorts are pretty comfortably numb right now. Right? They they’re not really scared about anything. And the weather has been pretty benign. You did talk about some demand. I think I’d like to see more. Especially with these cheaper prices. We’ll see. They would all love to see more no doubt about that. But I’m excited to the pro forma crap your kicks off in about a month. And so now we’re going to start talking more and more about yield as we get closer and closer to that and beyond. So we’ll have something new to talk about, right? We’ll be able to report on those boondoggles where you guys go on here. Well, that’s fun. Okay, man, steroids are gonna go away. We’re gonna pay some bills. We’re gonna come back and talk more about overslept blueline futures in Chicago we’ll be right back after this
bring them in for about 45 seconds here Oliver Sloup Blue Line futures in Chicago. What are your thoughts here Oliver?
Well, I’ve got a sound like a broken record by now we’ve been talking about the cattle markets having reason to rally good fundamental backdrop but really unable to gain any traction really unable to engage the spec traders like they did last fall and that’s been a big yellow caution flag and today you’re seeing that kind of slide lowers the outside market tumble lower and I think what’s keeping the buyers at bay is really just all the headline risks out there from the election the bird flu day softening economy and then looking at we’re gonna be you know, through peak demand season here before long. Yeah, I agree with him and when Once we’re through that demand, I mean, once again, if you’re a bull, what are you looking for it so you got to be careful. What we’ve been saying is make sure you got some protection to the downside. Thanks very much. Oliver Sloup with Glen futures in Chicago.