Grain markets were uniformly higher in the early morning trade but fizzled out into the afternoon trade. Where does that leave us on the charts? Also, the monthly Cattle on Feed report was just released, how will the market digest the news next week?
Grain Market Recap
Grains were uniformly higher in the morning but that strength gave way into the afternoon session. At the close the new crop December corn contract was ¼ of a cent lower, settling gat 404 ¾. The new crop November soybeans lost 7 cents to settle at 1036. On the wheat side, the September Chicago contract was 7 ½ cents higher at the close to settle at 542 3/4, though that was about 14 cents off the early morning high.
Soybean bulls may have been disappointed in today’s price action considering yesterday’s reversal higher, which came on the back of better than expected export news. Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 360,100 MT or about 13.2 million bushels, up 73 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. On top of that, there was a flash sale reported. Private exporters announced a sale of 510,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Though it isn’t confirmed, some analysts suggest that a sale that large is likely to China.
Weather will continue to be monitored closely for crop progress in corn and soybeans. Yesterday’s monthly outlook models showed strong chances for warmer weather for much of the country with near normal levels of precipitation. Crop progress is expected to remain above last year’s averages in next week’s report.
Livestock Market Recap
It was a mixed day in the livestock markets with live cattle mixed, feeders lower, and lean hogs higher. At the close front month August live cattle settled 85 cents higher 183.10, the now more actively traded October contract settled 45 cents higher to 183.47. The next two contract months were marginally lower. August feeder cattle finished the day 62 cents lower to settle at 255.60. October lean hogs settled 52 cents higher to 74.55.
Part of the reason for the mixed trade may have been due to positioning ahead of this afternoon’s cattle on feed report. The average analyst estimate for on-feed came in at 101%, placements at 96.4%, and marketings at 91.5%. With the report on a Friday after the market close, it’ll be not only interesting to see what the numbers are, but how the market will interpret it next week after having the weekend to digest it all.
This morning’s wholesale boxed beef report was weaker with choice cuts 2.02 lower to 314.13 and select cuts 45 cents lower to 299.01. Yesterday’s 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 188.58, softer than what we’ve seen in recent reports. Daily slaughter was reported at 115k head, 7k head less than last week and 9k head less than the same day last year. Week to date slaughter stands at 475k head, nearly 20k less than the same period last year.
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