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Can Cattle Futures Stage a Rally Ahead of a Seasonally Weaker Time of Year?

Livestock Round Up

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Cattle futures have been skating on thin ice recently with looming headline risks ranging from bird flu to weaker economic data. Will Friday’s Cattle on Feed report be enough to spur a rally ahead of a seasonally softer time of year?

Live Cattle

Technicals (October – V) October live cattle have been treading water on trendline support from the April lows and the 20-day moving average for about two straight weeks. Will Friday’s Cattle on Feed report be the catalyst to help these technical levels be defended, our early vote would be yes (for now). The first hurdle for the Bulls comes in at Friday’s high, 184.07, above that is a more significant resistance pocket from 185.77-185.87. If we do get a nice rally to start the week, we would likely view it as an opportunity for those who need protection to get it, or to play it to the short side. On top of looming headline risk, we are approaching a time of year that has lent hand to weaker prices over the years (past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). The second chart below is a look at seasonal average prices for October live cattle over the last 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years.

Cattle on Feed Report Summary: Cattle on Feed Report – Blue Line Futures

  • Resistance: 185.77-185.87**, 187.60-188.55
  • Pivot: 184.07
  • Support: 181.725-182.25**, 179.60

Feeder Cattle


Technicals (August – Q) August feeder cattle futures were threatening a breakdown below trendline support in Friday’s trade, that line in the sand comes from the lows from the first week of December. A break and close below there could spark a more bearish short term trend. Seasonally speaking (past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results), we are nearing a time of year that has seen weakness in the past. The second chart below is a look at seasonal averages for October feeders over the last 5, 10, 15,20, and 30 years.

  • Resistance: 262.25-263.00, 264.75-265.75
  • Pivot: 256.125-256.70
  • Support: 253.40-254.35*, 250.80-251.125

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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