Metals Edge is a new Blue Line Futures product developed for Swing and Long-Term Traders. It will focus on Gold and Silver specifically and attempt to identify trend changes, entry and exit points, seasonal tendencies, and option strategies.
Today’s Outlook
U.S. Equities were choppy on Tuesday as investors digested their first economic data releases of the week. After the bell, earnings from big tech followed. Alphabet’s earnings surprised traders, while Tesla’s earnings came up short. Ethereum exchange-traded funds are finally trading, leading to more technical consolidation from Bitcoin and Ether. Copper and Crude Oil hit their 200-DMAs, as Gold continued to fend off dips below 2400, and Silver staged a late-day rally. Traders will continue to digest earnings and a slew of economic data, followed by two Fed speakers today.
Today’s Economic Focus
Goods Trade Balance – Forecast -98.9B Previous -99.4B
(Trade in goods makes up about 75% of total trade, and therefore provides early insight into the Trade Balance data reported about five days later)
Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m – Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.6%
(There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Preliminary and Final)
Flash Manufacturing PMI – Forecast 51.6 Previous 51.6
(Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction)
Flash Services PMI – Forecast 54.7 Previous 54.8
(Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction)
New Home Sales – Forecast 639k Previous 619k
(a leading indicator of economic health)
FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
FOMC Member Logan Speaks
Today’s Tactical Support & Resistance Levels
Levels are created using an algorithmic proprietary price, volume, and volatility model
Gold Seasonal Analysis
Below is the 5-, 15-, and 30-year seasonal analysis of December Gold futures. If you want to discuss our strategy in the 10-oz Gold contract, please email Info@BlueLineFutures.com.
Gold
Technicals (August)
Similar to Monday, Gold futures continue to consolidate near $2400/oz as traders digest news from U.S. politics, the Fed, the direction of the Dollar, and the bounce back in two-year treasury yields.
On Tuesday, Gold Futures traded in a $24 range, with a high of 2413.5 and a low of 2389.2, and settled at 2409.0. Today, we will see the first wave of PMI data, where volatility should pick up. Two Fed speakers will follow in the afternoon.
If the bulls cannot defend 2400, futures will likely trade down to the 50 DMA at 2375.
Daily Stochastics continue to correct from overbought territory, while DMI + converges with DMI -, leaving the market still on shakey grounds. The 14-day average true range declined to 33.4, and our Trend Neutralizer level remains at 2385.6.
For Swing Traders
- Bias: Neutral/Bullish
- Resistance: 2448.4-2450.0, 2488.4**
- Pivot: 2400 (Psychological), 2375 (50 DMA)
- Support: 2375, 2358.6 (Bull Trend Neutralizer)
Below is a Daily chart of August Gold futures
Silver
Technicals (September)
Futures continue to seesaw, weighed in by Copper and further deterioration in the Chinese economy, while Gold futures slowly pull away. The impact of being 54% an industrial metal and disconnect from the Gold market has pushed the Gold/Silver ratio back to 82:1. Silver took a swipe at the previous day’s low, but bargain hunters stepped in. The tight range of prices is another setup for a larger, more explosive move once the next direction is determined. With a Neutral trend from our Trend Discovery System, it will take a move above 31.22 to capture a bullish trend, while a close below 29.11 enters a new Bear market.
Daily Stochastics are correcting from overbought territory, while DMI – attempts to cross above DMI +. Often, a negative crossover sets the stage for a more significant correction. The 14-day average true range has declined to 85 cents.
For Swing Traders
- Bias: Neutral
- Resistance: 30.45* (50 DMA), 31.22 (Bull Trade Trigger), 31.56****
- Pivot: 30.00
- Support: 29.11(Bear Trend Trigger), 28.96, 28.92, 28.62
Below is a daily chart of September Silver futures
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