E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5472.50, down 30.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,936.25, down 273.00
It is Fed Day, and although Chair Powell and the committee will be center stage this afternoon, earnings have captured all the talk thus far. The market is punishing anything less than perfect and we saw that firsthand last night with Microsoft, the world’s largest company by market cap. Although Microsoft nudged out a beat on top and bottom-line estimates, and beat in eleven of twelve sub-categories, it was the company’s behemoth cloud service Azure that underwhelmed. Additionally, like Alphabet, Microsoft’s CapEx soared by 35% q/q. While those two narratives slammed the stock by as much as 7%, CEO Nadella calmed nerves in the conference call calling for Azure growth to significantly accelerate in the second half of the year, helping investors connect the AI dots. MSFT has pared losses and is only down about 3% ahead of the open with E-mini NQ futures ripping by more than 2% off the bloodbath lows and positive on the week.
All was not negative though as AMD also reported and is +8% ahead of the bell. Like Microsoft, AMD merely nudged out a beat on top and bottom-line estimates, but Data Center Operating Income was up more than 5x from the prior year “driven by higher revenue and operating leverage. The strength here helped cool the indiscriminate selling in NVDA (+6.5%) and chips yesterday.
The Federal Reserve’s policy decision is due at 1:00 pm CT and according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool they are only expected to cut rates with a 3.1% probability. However, Chair Powell’s press conference at 1:30 pm CT may be most crucial in laying the groundwork for a cut in September which is fully priced in. Furthermore, the Fed is expected to cut rates three times this year with a 64.9% probability.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are back at the scene of the crime, a level at which they have failed four sessions in a row. Our major three-star resistance for the E-mini S&P remains 5533.24-5534.50, but we have increased our Bias (detailed below) to be more Bullish and have additional resistance levels listed in the case of clearing this first mark. Helping to stoke higher prices will be continued price action above our Pivot and point of balance that aligns with our momentum indicator at 5511 in the E-mini S&P an…
Continue reading the full article when you subscribe to our Morning Express.
Subscribe to our daily Morning Express for insights into S&P, Nasdaq, Crude Oil, Bitcoin futures and more, including proprietary trading levels and market bias. Get free access to futures market research and expert analysis on key indices and commodities.