Grain markets have been under heavy pressure for a while now while cattle futures remained firm. Is a role reversal in order now that we’ve turned the calendar over into August?
Check out last week’s video of the potentially bearish setup in cattle markets: Are Cattle Futures Nearing a Top?
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Let’s bring in our next guest analyst. He’s bad and clean up. So he’s got to tie it all up in a nice red ribbon and give us some good news here. But Oliver Sloup coming to us from Chicago. He’s with blue line features. Oliver, thanks for taking the time. All right, well, what are your thoughts The floor is yours have at it?
Well, I’m starting to see a few green shoots out there. And I haven’t been able to say that for a while at times over the last several weeks, it’s just been, you know, all read pretty much across the screen, we see December corn still on the read. Old support is now going to be resistance psychologically significant for dollar level to the bottom end of the old Range 403. If we can get out above there, maybe we can see some more upward momentum. But you had mentioned the strength in the wheat market. And I find that pretty darn encouraging. We’re looking at the September Chicago contract, that’s where the bulk of the volume is. And we’ve been trying to probe lower for the last three days, but have so far been able to defend those lows that were set on Monday at 514 and a quarter. So from a risk reward perspective, so long as we can continue to defend those loads from Monday. I like the upside potential here, we still got some work to do if we can get out above by 25 by 30. On a closing basis for this week’s trade, potentially that sparks a little bit more momentum. And on the soybeans they’re holding in as well. We’ve seen three consecutive Thursday’s of flash sales China was in the market again this morning. 132,000 metric tons or about 4.9 million bushels. So some encouraging action there as well, on the technical side, need to see some closes above 1025 to 1030 to spark something a little bit more exciting. But I think that’s that’s a lot better of a picture than we’ve seen in recent weeks for sure. Yeah,
I mean, it is and I needed to see a little bit more than that even to I mean, it’s been a tough one out there in the Bloomberg commodity index that’s not telling me a lot of good things either. I just feel like a little bit I’m not gonna be too broad about it. But I do feel like we’re it’s almost like a deflationary pressure right now, when it comes to commodities and I don’t know if that’s leading the way or not that’s what I’m kind of worried about, you know, the overall general economy so we’ll see stay right there. We’re gonna go away we’re gonna pay some bills. We’re gonna come back and talk more with Oliver Sloup, global line future season Chicago. I’ll be right back. Let’s bring our guests analysts back and see what he’s got to say about it. Oliver Sloup Blue Line futures in Chicago. Oliver. What do you think about this meet Morgan here?
Well, I think you hit the nail on the head when we were wrapping up the grain segment and talking about some of the outside markets having an influence on commodities and deflationary pressure. And we’ve talked about this for the last several weeks, you and I and probably sound like a broken record where we think that a lot of that lingering headline risk out there not just with regards to the economy, but you throw in an election, the bird flu, geopolitical risks, and I don’t think you’re gonna get the fun participation that we saw last fall. And typically you roll the calendar over into August. And it’s a seasonally weak time of year for live cattle and feeder cattle. So when you bundle all those things up together, I think it keeps buyers at bay. And when you start to see some of these tactical level breaks, break down, you start to see that selling accelerate. And I think that’s what we’ve seen here to start the first trading day of August. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see that maybe continue a little bit here for live cattle and feeder cattle.
Yeah, I know, like we said to you know, there doesn’t need to be a reason. It’s always good to have some sort of protection because they pulled the rug rug out from under those guys at the end of last year, and there wasn’t really a big fundamental change of any at all. So you have to be doubly doubly careful about that. All right. Great stuff as usual, Oliver, thanks for coming on. Oliver Sloup with balloon futures in Chicago.