Grains Get Hit Hard on Thursday but Try to Bounce Back in Friday’s Early Morning Trade. Will it last?

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Corn and soybeans posted new closing lows in Thursday’s trade but have rebounded some in the overnight and early morning trade. Wheat is the leader to the upside this morning and threatening a breakout to the upside.

Oliver Sloup was on RFD-TV yesterday afternoon sharing his thoughts on the recent slide in grain and livestock futures.

Check out more!

Corn

Technicals (December) Corn failed to take out the previous day’s high yet again which took prices to a new closing low, settling just two cents above the contract low of 395 which was posted on August 1st and retested in last night’s trade. A failure to hold ground keeps the door open for a potential drop into our next support pocket, 380-385. On the resistance side, the Bulls need to see a close above 403 to help rejuvenate

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance

  • Bias: Neutral/Bullish (cautiously optimistic)
  • Resistance: 408-409, 412 3/4-413, 421 3/4-423 3/4*
  • Pivot: 399-403
  • Support: 395-396*, 380-385

Weekly Export Sales from Thursday

  • Net sales of 485,400 MT for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was above the top end of expectations which ranged from 100k-400k.
  • Net sales of 249,100 MT for 2024/2025. This was below the low end of expectations which ranged from 475k – 1 MMT.

Average Estimates for August 12th USDA Report

  • Production: 15.105 billion bushels
  • Yield: 182.1 bushels per acre
  • Harvested Acres: 82.974 million
  • 23/24 Ending Stocks: 1.886 billion bushels
  • 24/25 Ending Stocks: 2.106 billion bushels


Below: Daily Chart of December Corn Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the June highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).

Soybeans


Technicals (November) November soybeans made new lows in yesterday’s trade and the September contract surrendered the psychologically significant $10.00 level. The market has found itself higher in the early morning trade, retesting what was first support yesterday, we’ve outlined that as 1013-1015. If the Bulls can achieve a close back above here potentially that aids in some minor relief towards 1025-1031 3/4. Just above that is trendline resistance and the 20-day moving average which have been a brick wall for the market since May.

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance

  • Bias: Neutral
  • Resistance: 1025-1031 3/4, 1046-1050
  • Pivot: 1013-1015
  • Support: 997-1000*

Weekly Export Sales from Thursday

  • Net sales of 325,400 MT for 2023/2024 were up 2 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was above the top end of expectations, which ranged from 100k-300k.
  • Net sales of 985,200 MT for 2024/2025. This was above the top end of expectations which ranged from 400k-900k

Average Estimates for August 12th USDA Report

  • Production: 4.473 billion bushels
  • Yield: 52.6 bushels per acre
  • Harvested Acres: 85.116 million
  • 23/24 Ending Stocks: 350 million bushels
  • 24/25 Ending Stocks: 470 million bushels

Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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