Grain futures looked promising yesterday morning, but that optimism waned and turned to weakness into the close. That has spilled over into weakness in the overnight and early morning trade.
Corn
Technicals (December)
December corn futures were on the verge of a breakout above trendline resistance and the 20-day moving average, but that early morning strength faded and turned to weakens into the afternoon. That weakness has carried over into weakness in the early morning trade with December corn down 2 3/4 of a cent around 5:30am CT. Support below the market comes in from 387-390 1/4. The CME CVOL index (a measure of volatility) continues to drift lower, on the verge of reaching its lowest levels since February.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
- Bias: Neutral/Bullish
- Resistance: 406 1/4-409, 421 3/4-423 3/4*
- Pivot: 403 3/4-404 3/4
- Support: 387-390 1/4*, 380
Below: Daily Chart of December Corn Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the June highs as well as trendline support, both of which are converging to create a falling wedge. The chart also includes the 20-day moving average (in purple).
Notes
- Weekly Export Sales: Thursday’s weekly export sales report came in at 120,500 MT (4,743,874 bushels) for 2023/2024, below the low end of expectations and a marketing-year low. This was down 75 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 800,500 MT (31,514,284 bushels) for 2024/2025 which was just a hair above the top end of expectations at 800k.
- Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left corn production unchanged from the prior week, 46.5m tons. Corn harvest is 97.8% complete.
- International Grains Council: IGC increased their 2024/2025 global corn production forecast to 1.226 billion MT, up 1mmt.
- Mississippi River: Barge shipments of corn rose 22.3% from the previous week. St. Louis barge rates saw an increase of $1.04 form the previous week to $15.04 per short ton.
Chart of Interest
Below is a visual representation of his year’s weekly export sales data (red line) relative to the previous year (blue line) and the 5-year average pace (green line).
Soybeans
Technicals (November)
Soybeans attempted to rally in Thursday’s trade following a second consecutive week of better-than-expected new crop export sales. However, that early morning optimism stalled out against our pivot pocket from 975 1/2-980, with the market posting a high for the session at 978 1/4. Sellers stepped back in there which reversed prices and took them back near unchanged at the close. The reversal as continued into the overnight and early morning trade with November futures down 7 1/2 cents at about 5:30am CT. That pivot pocket will remain intact and act as a near term inflection point for the market. On the support side, we see minor support from 950-955 1/4.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
- Bias: Neutral/Bearish
- Resistance: 995-1000, 1013-1015
- Pivot: 975 1/2-980
- Support: 950-955 1/4**
Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).
Notes
- Weekly Export Sales: Yesterday’s weekly export sales report came in at 221,700 MT (8,146,078 bushels) for 2023/2024, within the range of expectations but down 32 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 1,344,200 MT (49,390,881 bushels) for 2024/2025, this is the second we week we saw new crop sales above the top end of expectations.
- NOPA Crush: NOPA crush was reported at 182.881 million bushels, which was above the average estimate and 5.5% over last year’s July record. Soy oil stocks at 1.499 billion lbs were below the average guess and at a 7-month low.
- International Grains Council: IGC increased their 2024/2025 global soybean production estimate to 419mmt, up 4mmt from last month. This is nearly 7% above last year’s record.
Mississippi River: Barge shipments of soybeans rose 25% week over week.
Chart of Interest
Below is a visual representation of his year’s weekly export sales data (red line) relative to the previous year (blue line) and the 5-year average pace (green line).
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