Corn, soybeans, and wheat were all lower to start the week, but soybeans showed signs of life of prices made their way back into positive territory.
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Transcript:
Day Oliver Sloup with blue line futures, and was a part of that Pro Farmer crop to her, last week, what did you see? We saw a lot of good corn and soybeans, which was widely covered throughout last week. And I think all in all, though it was halfway encouraging for corn to see the yield come in under what the USDA had it pegged in, I think that offers a little bit of silver lining there on the fundamental side. And then on top of that, we’ve seen the demand side of corn really be strong as well. So we’re a little bit weaker to start this week’s trade. But all in all, I think that corn may have be a little bit closer to a near term equilibrium, and maybe we get the September contract into delivery, we can start to carve out a little bit of a near term low beans. On the other hand, that was quite a bit more bearish in terms of what the Pro Farmer came out with. They had the yield right around 54.9 bushels per acre compared to the USDA is 53.2 so a little bit of a shock there, and that may be why we opened up quite a bit lower in the Sunday night trade. But I tell you what it if you’re looking for silver lining, soybeans is really where it’s at. We’ve worked our way back near unchanged, even traded in a positive territory by a ticker to this morning, which is nice to see. We have had a string of flash sales last week. It’d be great to see that pick up again here this week, we didn’t see anything this morning, but still, still four days left to get some of those across the news wire. Okay, so mentioned on the wheat side, and our focus has really been on on corn and soybeans at least the last few weeks. But looking at wheat, Kansas City has been moving higher, but Chicago moving lower. And knowing your your post this morning, you actually talked about it being that oversold territory. What’s happening with Chicago wheat? Well, Chicago had a big breakdown late last week, and that kind of really spurred some additional technical selling that took us below that psychologically significant $5 level. Now the market is trying to stabilize a little bit here this morning, but I think there are a couple caution flags out there, especially when you look at the US dollar making multi month lows. Typically the correlation with the grain market is that’s a tailwind when the dollar is making lows, and especially a tailwind for the wheat market. And the fact that we really can’t get anything going here is a caution flag seasonally. This is still a week time for the wheat market, but once we turn the calendar into September, that’s often when we start to see some of these markets start to attempt to carve out a near term low. So again, you know, we’re got the September contract going in the first notice day for corn, beans and wheat this week. Hopefully we get that behind us. Turn the calendar over September and we can have a little bit more positive price action to talk about. All right, let’s come back talk livestock futures with Oliver Sloup. We’re back as market day report continues after this, and then the hog trade. Is it following? Well, it is on the 2024, contracts front month, up a couple of pennies at 8057, December, 15 higher at 7090, so is the cattle on feed report. Some of the stimulus for the markets this week, Oliver Sloup back. Oliver, what are you watching? Well, that cattle on feed report was big one Friday afternoon, some people painted it with a little bit of a bearish tilt, which I can definitely see, but largely it was in line with analysts expectations, pretty much across the board. So I think the market traded it initially for about these 45 seconds this morning, we opened traded sharply lower, but buyers were ready, willing and able to step into the market, which is really what you want to see after such a sharp sell off, where you do get a little bit of a negative headline, then you see buyers step in on the pullback. And I think that could bode well for additional relief from these levels after just a tremendous haircut over the last several weeks. You had mentioned that feeder cattle contract that October. I really think that we can probably get additional relief towards 240, to 242. There’s a 20 day moving average up there as well as trendline resistance. And when you look at how the funds are positioned, they’re not sellers again last week, and they’re met short was at 3800 contracts, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but it is for the feeder cattle market, that’s the largest net short since we saw back in January. So there may be a little bit overextended on the short side, and we couldn’t break down on a bearish report. So seeing some of that get covered here this morning to start this week’s trade, and I’m looking at the smile on your face, that must mean you slept in your bed at least a couple of nights since the crop tour. So welcome back home, and thanks for stopping by Oliver Sloup with blue. Divine futures and come.