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WTI Crude Oil futures struggled at first key resistance yesterday

Energy Update

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

WTI rallied yesterday on technical buying and the increasing risk-premia as forecast Tropical Storm Francine was forecasted to strengthen as it hit the gulf. 

WTI Crude Oil (October)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 68.71, up 1.04

WTI rallied yesterday on technical buying and the increasing risk-premia as forecast Tropical Storm Francine was forecasted to strengthen as it hit the gulf. Francine is expected to make landfall as a category two hurricane Wednesday. The oil majors announced evacuations and some well shut-ins on their off-shore rigs yesterday on updated forecasts.

Sellers have been pressuring the market overnight into this morning on updated OPEC data and the preponderance of traders to sell any pops within the structural bear market. WTI is off -0.64 [-0.92%] to 68.07. RBOB is a bit stronger on weather risk, down -0.50 [-0.26%] to 191.55, and Diesel is off -1.52 [-0.71%]. European Diesel is showing strength, with Gasoil up +0.75 [+0.12%] to 646.50. Front month Natural Gas is stronger on Hurricane Francine risk-premia, with the October contract up +0.72 [+3.27%] to 2.241.   

OPEC released their Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) overnight. The group’s updated demand forecasts showed minor adjustments downwards but still showed over-optimistic (in our opinion) demand assumptions. This comes despite OPEC’s decision to delay Oil output hikes by two months. 

Whatever the reason may be, OPEC has been a habitual over-estimator of global oil demand for the past few years. Caution is advised on use of their demand side estimates. The group is forecasting oil demand growth of 1.7mln barrels per day for 2025 and 2.0mln barrels per day for 2024, both above the pre-pandemic long term average of 1.4mln barrels per day. Non-OECD demand is projected to drive 2025 demand growth, with 1.6 out of the 1.7mln bpd of growth coming from China, the Middle-East, Other Asia and India.

Contact Blue Line’s research desk for more information and color on the OPEC report if interested. 

Also slated for today is the release of the EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook report and continued commentary out of the APPEC conference. 

Summary: With the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop where it is, pops in Crude are likely to be sold. From an active trader’s standpoint, we advise patience and selectivity if picking buy-spots as the market continues its downtrend. We have yet to settle into an established trading range on this leg lower and downside risk remains.

WTI Crude Oil futures struggled at first key resistance yesterday at….

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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