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Traders Anxiously Await Today’s WASDE Report

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Grains are higher ahead of this morning’s WASDE report.  These are the levels to watch for in today’s trade.

Corn
Technicals (December)

December corn futures traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday, testing and defending support again. That support pocket remains intact for today’s trade, 401-403 3/4. A break and close below there would flip the short-term bias from bullish territory to bearish. On the resistance side of things, 413 1/2-416 is the pocket to watch. A breakout above there could spark a wave of short covering and take prices into the mid-420’s. It’s only fitting that on the morning of the report we find ourselves right on our pivot point, 409. This report isn’t typically a huge market moving report with the average trading range of the last 10-years clocing in at 16 1/2 cents and the average daily change coming in near 7 cents. Over the last 10 years the biggest daily changes were in 2018 (-14 1/4 cents) and 2015 (+12 3/4 cents). The last five years have been friendly for corn prices.

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 413 1/2-416, 421 3/4-423 3/4*
Pivot: 409
Support: 401-403 3/4, 380-385
Below: Daily Chart of December Corn Futures.

WASDE Estimates

  • Yield: 182.4. This would be down from the 183.1 in August.
  • Harvested Area: 82.65, down slightly from the 82.71 in August.
  • Production: 15.076, this compares to the 15.147 in August.
  • U.S. Ending Stocks:
    • 2023/2024: 1.859 billion bushels
    • 2024/2025: 2.033 billion bushels


Weekly Export Sales Estimates
Corn: 700,000 – 1,600,000 Metric Tons. Last week: 1,649,000.


Soybeans
Technicals (November)

November soybeans were able to close back in our pivot pocket yesterday, which still leaves the technical landscape in limbo leading into today’s WASDE report. First upside targets come in from 1032-1024 1/2. Above that is 1031 3/4-1035. Above that could accelerate the momentum to the buyside. A break and close below yesterday’s low and we could see a retest of support from 984 3/4-991. Below that and new lows would not be out of the question. The average trading range over the last 10 years for soybeans has been about 36 cents with the average daily change near 22 1/4 cents. The last 10 years have been split evenly between Up and Down days.

With U.S. harvest just around the corner, attention has started to shift towards South American weather. Here’s a look at why that’s important: Brazilian Crop Production Preview – Blue Line Futures

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1023-1024 1/2, 1031 3/4-1035
Pivot: 1000-1006 1/2
Support: 984 3/4-991, 973 1/4, 950-955 1/4*
Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures

WASDE Estimates

  • Yield: 53.2. This would be unchanged from August.
  • Harvested Area: 86.259, down slightly from the 86.271 in August.
  • Production: 4.589, this would be unchanged from August.
  • U.S. Ending Stocks
    • 2023/2024: 343 million bushels
    • 2024/2025: 568 million bushels

Weekly Export Sales Estimates

700,000 – 1,600,000 Metric Tons. Last Week: 1,430,000

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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