Grain markets are firm in the overnight and early morning trade, will it last through today’s trade?
Corn
Technicals (December)
December corn futures are knocking on the door of our resistance pocket from 413 1/2-416. If the Bulls can chew through and close above here, we could see a move back towards the high end of the range for July which comes in from 423 3/4-426 1/2. Our pivot point near 409 remains intact. A failure to hold ground above here on a closing basis could neutralize the friendly technical setup that has developed over the last week.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 413 1/2-416, 423 3/4-426 1/2*
Pivot: 408 1/2-409
Support: 401-403 3/4, 380-385
Brazil
In a presentation yesterday, Conab outlined their initial outlook numbers. That presentation showed corn output rising by 3.6% vs last year. Corn exports are seen dropping 5.6% to 34 million metric tons, while domestic consumption is seen rising by 3.3%. The weather conversation right now is mostly around its impact on soybeans, but as we turn the calendar over to October corn will start to be a part of the conversation.
Ethanol
The EIA will release their weekly ethanol report this morning. Analysts are expecting to see production at 1.052 million barrels per day, that would be down from 1,080 from the previous week. Stockpiles are estimated to be at 23.740 million barrels, up from 23.714 a week ago.
Seasonal Tendency Update
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Below is a look at this year’s price action (black line) VS price averages for December corn over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods. Historically the market makes an attempt at a harvest low between now and the first week of October. Keep in mind that we do have a quarterly USDA report on September 30th.
Soybeans
Technicals (November)
November soybeans are threatening our first resistance pocket in the overnight trade, we’ve outlined that as 1023-1024 1/2. A breakout above this pocket and we could see another dime tacked on in short order. On the flipside, 1000-1006 1/2 remains the first support level that the Bulls need to defend to keep the momentum in their favor.
Technical Levels of Importance
- Resistance: 1023-1024 1/2, 1031 3/4-1035
- Pivot: 1000-1006 1/2
- Support: 984 3/4-991, 973 1/4, 950-955 1/4*
Brazil
In a presentation yesterday, Conab outlined crop production numbers for Brazil. The official report will be released on October 15th. The presentation showed Brazil’s soybean area growing by 3% to 47.4 million hectares with yield improving 9.6%. They see soybean exports growing by 13% to 104.8 million metric tons compared to the 2023/2024 season. Weather will become increasingly important as planting picks up and crops start to develop. Below is a look at the Brazilian soybean crop calendar.
Seasonal Tendency Update
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Below is a look at this year’s price action (black line) VS price averages for November soybeans over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods. Historically the market struggles in the back half of September before attempting to make a harvest low in early October. Weather in Brazil could be the catalyst to make or break that trend as dry weather raises concerns. Keep in mind that we do have a quarterly USDA report on September 30th.
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