Cattle futures are knocking on the door of a technical resistance. Will the risk-on tone in the outside markets be enough to push cattle markets higher?
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Live Cattle (December)
December live cattle futures failed to take out the previous day’s high but did manage to mark a new closing high for the move. With a risk-on tone in the outside markets following yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting, we would think that would spill into momentum for cattle futures. The next upside objective for the December contract comes in from 181.325-182.07. Above that and you’re looking at a move to 183.57-184.225 which represents the origin of the breakdown that started in the first two days of August. Seasonally the back half of September can be tough for the market to rally, but we do see well defined strength once we turn the calendar over to October (see chart below).
Yesterday’s 5 area average for live steers was at 183.16. Cutout values were weaker with choice cuts down 2.53 to 301.38 and select cuts down 2.47 to 289.75. Daily slaughter was reported at 125k head, in line with last week and year.
- Resistance: 181.325-182.07, 183.57-184.225*
- Pivot: 179.10-179.97
- Support: 175.72-176.10, 173.17-173.87
Weekly Export Sales
Beef: Net sales of 15,500 MT for 2024 were up 36 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Seasonal Tendency Update
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Below is a look at this year’s price action (black line) VS price averages for December live cattle over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods.
Feeder Cattle (October)
Feeder cattle are struggling to get out above resistance with conviction. With that said, the double bottom remains intact and the chart still looks constructive. If the Bulls can chew through resistance from 242.75-243.45 we could see the market, make an attempt to rally towards 250. With that said, seasonal tendencies for Feeder cattle are weaker than that of live cattle, so expectations should be tempered some. If the market were able to make that move higher, we would look at putting our bias back into bearish territory.
- Resistance: 242.75-243.45*
- Pivot: 239.62-240.15
- Support: 236.20-236.75, 232.75-233.95***
Seasonal Tendency Update
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Below is a look at this year’s price action (black line) VS price averages for October feeder cattle over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods.
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